BRUSSELS — As European leaders gather for a crucial summit in Paris, they are faced with the pressing need to safeguard their negotiating power regarding Russia, particularly as signals from Washington suggest a potential easing of sanctions against Moscow. This summit marks a pivotal moment as leaders aim to unify their response to the Trump administration’s overtures toward the Kremlin, which may involve concessions that European governments consider to be beyond American jurisdiction.
European concerns over U.S. negotiations
Diplomatic unease is palpable among European officials, who fear that the U.S. is too hastily relinquishing vital leverage. On Wednesday, U.S. and Russian representatives indicated that talks in Saudi Arabia may lead to a relaxation of restrictions pertaining to the international financial system and insurance for energy shipments, contingent on a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea. This development has prompted the European Union to demand transparency regarding the negotiations occurring without its involvement, especially concerning sanctions related to the Belgium-based international payments system SWIFT and the operations of Russia’s shadow fleet, which is utilized to bypass sanctions and sustain oil exports.
“We are talking about core, hard sanctions,” an EU diplomat remarked. “If the Russians want them to be lifted, they need to have a confrontation with us, not only with the Americans.”
Complicating matters further is the intricate nature of the diplomatic landscape, where negotiations may be rife with deception. European leaders are now prioritizing the need to decipher these complex dynamics. Janis Kluge from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs voiced concerns that should the EU dismiss Putin’s demands, both Trump and Putin might use the EU as a scapegoat for any failed peace initiatives, potentially sowing discord within the European bloc itself.
Security guarantees and sanctions stance
This summit is part of a series of high-level meetings held in Paris and London aimed at enhancing security guarantees for Ukraine. It is expected to host leaders from over 30 nations and international organizations, including EU member states, the U.K., and Turkey. Notably, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with French President Emmanuel Macron prior to the summit to discuss these pressing issues.
European officials are eager to clarify the agreements made between Ukraine and the U.S., as Zelenskyy’s insights could greatly assist the EU in its negotiations. Meanwhile, the European Commission has firmly denied any possibility of altering its stance on sanctions in light of the recent U.S.-Russia discussions. Miloš Vystrčil, head of the Czech Senate, emphasized the absurdity of lifting sanctions while Russian aggression continues, likening it to a domestic abuse scenario where the abuser demands the victim cease calling for help before stopping their violent behavior.
Despite the potential for change, any modifications to EU sanctions must receive unanimous consent from all 27 member states. Countries bordering Russia are particularly apprehensive about any easing of sanctions and are advocating for increased restrictions. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže underscored the necessity of sanctions in curbing Russia’s capacity to launch future aggressive actions against its neighbors, asserting that they should be “further strengthened” to compel Russia towards meaningful peace negotiations.
Following the recent U.S.-Russia discussions, the Kremlin announced that the U.S. might facilitate the restoration of access for Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports to global markets, potentially including reductions in marine insurance costs and enhanced access to ports and payment systems for such trade. However, Ukraine has made it clear that any sanctions relief would only be considered in exchange for a sustainable peace agreement that guarantees territorial integrity and justice.
Estonia’s Ambassador to France, Lembit Uibo, conveyed that “the simple lifting of sanctions is not possible unless the situation is totally rectified,” which includes ending the occupation of territories, ceasing hostilities, and compensating for damages. While discussions on sanctions and frozen assets are not officially on the agenda for Thursday’s summit, they are anticipated to arise, particularly in relation to the proposed Black Sea deal.
Leaders are also expected to evaluate the Franco-British initiative to deploy a “reassurance force” to Ukraine, seeking ways to operationalize this strategy should a ceasefire be achieved. France, the U.K., and several other European nations have been advocating for the deployment of European troops to Ukraine, with the backing of American forces, as part of efforts to stabilize the region.