BRUSSELS — The insightful words of Bart De Wever, the Belgian prime minister, resonate deeply in current geopolitical discussions: “It’s usually the case that if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.” This sentiment captures the precarious position of the European Union (EU) as it navigates the complex dynamics surrounding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly regarding the influence of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
On Thursday, EU leaders initiated critical steps aimed at countering Trump’s long-standing demands for increased European defense capabilities. All 27 member states have agreed to significantly bolster their military spending, potentially reaching €800 billion, with the intention of reducing their dependency on American military support.
Strengthening defenses and supporting Ukraine
In a notable show of unity, EU leaders, with the exception of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, committed to providing Ukraine with additional military assistance, including weapons and financial aid, particularly as Trump has begun to limit military supplies and intelligence sharing with the country.
In the coming fortnight, Brussels officials will work diligently on the specifics of this defense plan. If implemented, it will enable EU governments to relax current spending restrictions to dedicate resources towards an array of military enhancements, including missiles, ammunition, drones, and air defense systems. Furthermore, the leaders urged the European Commission to expedite the release of promised funds to address Ukraine’s immediate wartime needs.
Ongoing challenges and the quest for peace
Another summit is scheduled for March 20-21, where these issues will again be under discussion, aiming to solidify actionable steps going forward. EU representatives assert that the rapid response to the situation reflects a commitment to evolving from a peace-centric organization, formed from the aftermath of World War II, to a robust defensive coalition aimed at averting a third global conflict.
Despite the EU’s proactive measures, the pivotal discussions regarding Ukraine and European security continue to unfold in different arenas. In their final communiqué, EU leaders articulated their “principles” for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing that “there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine” and regrettably noting that “there can be no negotiations that affect European security without Europe’s involvement.”
“Ukraine’s, Europe’s, transatlantic and global security are intertwined.”
Yet, whether Trump acknowledges this interconnectedness remains uncertain. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, recently visited Washington to advocate for European interests, but was reportedly rebuffed by Trump’s new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who declined to meet with her — an action viewed as a significant diplomatic snub.
Trump’s apparent disregard for the EU has been evident as he has not engaged in substantial discussions with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen since resuming office in January. However, some optimism emerged when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy informed EU leaders during a luncheon that his team had resumed dialogue with Trump’s administration.
In a further indication of shifting relations, Zelenskyy announced plans to visit Saudi Arabia for talks regarding a peace framework with the U.S. Trump has also indicated he would travel to Saudi Arabia, suggesting he believes Ukraine is ready for an agreement, though he has not confirmed a timeline for finalizing any deals.
It appears increasingly likely that the EU will not be invited into these discussions. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are poised to take a more active role in deploying troops into Ukraine to maintain peace, despite vague allusions in the EU summit conclusions about the bloc’s potential defense contributions.
Starmer is scheduled to receive updates from von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa regarding the summit discussions, indicating that informal alliances are forming outside traditional EU frameworks. Officials from Starmer’s team suggest that approximately 20 countries are ready to participate in a European-led peacekeeping initiative.
Kallas acknowledged this new reality on Thursday, stating that support for Ukraine is evolving into “a coalition of the willing,” highlighting the adaptability required to navigate the current landscape of international relations, as demonstrated by Hungary’s actions during the summit.
The critical question remains: is Trump willing to offer meaningful support to Europe amidst these tumultuous times?