BRUSSELS — The European Union is ramping up pressure on Belgium to endorse its proposal for a €210 billion loan to support Ukraine amid ongoing financial turmoil exacerbated by the war with Russia. As the EU leaders prepare for their summit on December 18, convincing Bart De Wever, Belgium’s Prime Minister, has become a top priority.
For months, De Wever has been resistant to the plan, particularly as it hinges on utilizing frozen Russian assets predominantly held in Belgium. His concerns primarily revolve around potential financial liabilities for Belgium if the loan must be repaid, prompting him to request additional safety measures. Currently, most of the Russian assets are stored in Euroclear, a major financial depository located in Brussels.
Belgium’s demands and the EU’s response
De Wever’s stipulations include a substantial cash buffer alongside enhanced financial guarantees and legal protections regarding any potential disputes, an approach that faces opposition from several EU governments. Belgium has outlined a series of amendments aimed at ensuring it is not solely responsible for repaying Russia should sanctions be lifted. De Wever has made it clear that he will not support the reparations loan unless his demands are addressed.
Initially, leaders anticipated reaching a consensus during their previous meeting in October, but the prospect of agreement now appears increasingly uncertain. However, diplomats remain hopeful. They plan to scrutinize Belgium’s requests and prioritize addressing its most significant concerns, striving to find common ground.
Consequences of Belgium’s resistance
As the summit approaches, the EU is intensifying its tactics. Should De Wever persist in obstructing the proposal — a position he has maintained for several months while introducing further conditions — he risks facing isolation similar to that experienced by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who has been sidelined due to his democratic backsliding and reluctance to cooperate on sanctions against Russia.
“If De Wever continues to block the plan… he will find himself in an uncomfortable and remarkable position for the leader of a country that for so long has been pro-EU,” noted an EU diplomat familiar with ongoing discussions.
Should Belgium remain uncooperative, its influence within the EU could diminish significantly. Key concerns and proposals regarding the EU’s long-term budget for 2028–2034 could be deprioritized, complicating matters for the Belgian government as negotiations progress over the next 18 months.
Moreover, Belgium could find its perspectives on EU matters disregarded, with unanswered calls and sidelined interests. This would represent a dramatic shift for a nation that has historically played a central role in EU affairs and held significant influence within the bloc.
As urgency mounts, the EU confronts a challenging reality. Ukraine faces an alarming budget deficit of €71.7 billion next year and will need to initiate cuts to public spending by April unless funding is secured. Additionally, U.S. support appears uncertain, as President Donald Trump has once again distanced himself from commitments to assist Ukraine.
In light of the high stakes, EU ambassadors are convening multiple times this week to discuss the Commission’s loan proposal, initially presented last week.
Should the reparations loan plan falter, alternative measures are being explored. The European Commission has suggested another route: joint debt backed by the next seven-year EU budget. However, Hungary has already rejected the idea of issuing eurobonds, and obtaining unanimous support for additional debt through the EU budget remains a formidable challenge.
The notion of some countries independently financing Ukraine, while not officially proposed, is being informally discussed. Germany, along with several Nordic and Baltic nations, is considered a potential contributor.
However, some diplomats caution that imposing the financial burden of supporting Ukraine on select member states could create deep divisions within the EU. “Solidarity is a two-way street,” warned one diplomat, emphasizing that the unity of the bloc is at stake.
In theory, the EU could bypass Belgium’s objections by utilizing a mechanism known as qualified majority voting to push the reparations loan plan through. However, this option is not currently a serious consideration among diplomats.