BRUSSELS — A severe lack of rainfall has left many regions across Europe parched as spring reaches its midpoint. From the conflict-ridden areas of Ukraine to the typically moist soil of Belgium, farmers and supply chains face significant challenges due to the early onset of drought conditions.
Widespread concerns over agricultural impact
The early drought raises alarms not only for agriculture but also for industry, trade, and global food security, further complicating the economic landscape affected by fluctuating tariff policies. The European Drought Observatory’s mid-March report highlights alarming conditions in various countries, including Poland, Ukraine, Greece, the Balkans, Sweden, Ireland, and Germany, with some areas in Spain currently under red alert.
Factors such as mismanagement of water resources exacerbate the ongoing dry conditions. Nevertheless, scientists attribute much of the crisis to climate change, which manifests in irregular rainfall patterns and soaring temperatures, resulting in increasingly frequent droughts across Europe.
Andrea Toreti, a leading researcher at the observatory, explained that the combination of insufficient rainfall and unusually warm temperatures—evidenced by last month being the hottest March on record—has intensified the current drought situation. He stated,
“The situation we are observing is causing quite some concern,”
particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, where the rainfall deficit has been escalating over the past 60 to 80 days.
Potential ramifications for agriculture and trade
Toreti noted that the severity of the drought will hinge on upcoming weather developments. The next few weeks are critical; without timely rainfall, agriculture could suffer serious consequences. He remarked,
“If we look at the climate predictions for the coming three months in the areas already suffering from low rainfall, the forecasts are not encouraging.”
Germany has been particularly affected, with data from the Helmholtz Center indicating that over half the country is experiencing extraordinarily dry topsoil, a crucial layer for emerging crops. In addition, the Rhine River, essential for transportation in Western Europe, is registering low water levels typically seen during the summer months, limiting barge capacities and escalating logistics costs.
Belgium, too, is facing a significant rainfall deficit, with the Royal Meteorological Institute reporting nearly a month of extremely low precipitation levels. Between March 1 and the previous Tuesday, there was virtually no rain for 33 days, with only 7.8 millimeters recorded in Brussels against an expected average of around 50 mm. Despite this, climatologist Pascal Mormal has indicated that Belgium is relatively fortunate, having ample groundwater reserves and not yet experiencing a full-blown drought.
In contrast, Central and Eastern Europe are grappling with prolonged dry conditions that have left soils unable to recover from the previous year’s drought. Countries such as Poland and Ukraine, both significant grain exporters, are particularly vulnerable. Agricultural researcher Claas Nendel warns of the implications a poor grain season could have on the global grain market, suggesting that this year may become a “drought year” for this vital agricultural region.
While European consumers might not face immediate threats to staple products like baguettes and focaccia, soaring grain prices could undermine global food security, already stressed by recent cuts in U.S. humanitarian aid.
Moreover, the dry weather increases the risk of wildfires, with authorities in Liechtenstein and Austria expressing concern over potential fire hazards. In Ukraine, the danger is intensified by stray Russian missiles igniting fires in the drought-stricken fields and forests.
The spring drought places additional pressure on the European Commission to introduce significant measures as part of its forthcoming Water Resilience Strategy, set to be revealed in June. This strategy aims to tackle the dual challenges of excessive and insufficient rainfall resulting from climate change.
As Europe faces these pressing issues, the continent’s water cycle is increasingly disrupted, with some areas like Lanzarote in Spain declaring a state of emergency due to recent flooding while others continue to suffer from drought conditions.