Europe’s reliance on American military hardware is undergoing significant scrutiny in light of Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy. His administration’s consistent criticism of NATO allies is prompting countries to reconsider their defense procurement strategies, which could reshape the future of arms purchases from the U.S.
Allied nations reconsider arms purchases
Although no drastic changes have yet been made, noteworthy concerns are surfacing in allied capitals. Countries like Portugal and Canada are hesitating on their orders for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. Meanwhile, France is intensifying efforts to encourage European nations to invest in domestic arms production.
This shift in sentiment was underscored on Wednesday when the European Commission unveiled a €150 billion plan for arms procurement that largely overlooks American manufacturers. As Gesine Weber, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Paris, noted, “Selling the F-35, or American systems for that matter, will certainly become more complicated for American companies.” She emphasized that the rationale for purchasing American systems—building a transatlantic defense strategy—is diminishing as the Trump administration seems to weaken these ties.
European responses to U.S. reliability
The tensions have been exacerbated by Trump’s earlier remarks threatening to annex Greenland and questioning U.S. commitments to NATO, which have unsettled European leaders. A Western European defense official, speaking anonymously, remarked, “If you keep punching your allies in the face, eventually they’re going to stop wanting to buy weapons from you.” This sentiment reflects growing apprehension regarding U.S. reliability as a defense partner.
The stakes are crucial for the U.S. defense sector as well, with former Ambassador Greg Delawie labeling the hesitance from Portugal and Canada regarding the F-35 as a “giant political and economic red flag”. With foreign military sales generating significant revenue—totaling $317 billion in 2024—the potential shift in European procurement could greatly impact the American defense industry. The F-35 is primarily assembled in Texas, a state that largely supports Trump, while the MIM-104 Patriot system is manufactured in Florida.
Byron Callan from Capital Alpha Partners pointed out that the changing perceptions about American defense reliability may alter global defense trade dynamics. However, U.S. arms manufacturers still hold hope that European nations will find it challenging to stray from American platforms, especially amidst their current efforts to strengthen military capabilities against threats from Russia.
Notably, Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states are expediting their purchases of various military equipment, highlighting the urgency for NATO members to bolster their arsenals.
Despite the turbulence in diplomatic relations, a senior executive in the U.S. defense industry expressed, “Even if [Trump] injects a lot of uncertainty in ties, American platforms are still the top choice… It’s not helpful for Europeans to buy inferior systems; this is for their own national security.” This underscores the complex relationship between European nations and American arms manufacturers.
The upcoming decision by Denmark regarding its air defense systems will serve as a crucial test of European willingness to seek alternatives to American weaponry. With the choice between the U.S. Patriot system and the Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG expected to be finalized soon, the outcome will provide insight into Europe’s future procurement strategies.
Furthermore, in Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney has alluded to potential shifts in defense strategy concerning the F-35s, highlighting the geopolitical climate’s influence on arms decisions.
The conversation continues, particularly as European leaders grapple with the implications of their partnerships with U.S. defense manufacturers. Recent remarks from Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo indicate this sentiment, as he stated, “We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices.” Meanwhile, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stresses the necessity for a balanced approach, recognizing the need for both U.S. and European defense solutions.
As European nations explore their capabilities to produce competitive military equipment, American defense firms remain alert to these developments. The Aerospace Industries Association has recently urged U.S. authorities to foster stronger transatlantic relations amidst concerns over prioritizing European suppliers in defense contracts.
Ultimately, while the American defense industry may retain a significant edge in terms of capability, the ongoing political dynamics could foster a shift in European defense procurement strategies, potentially reshaping the landscape of international arms sales.