BRUSSELS — A significant jet fuel shortage is looming over European airports as the ramifications of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz affect oil shipments to the continent. With London Heathrow and other U.K. airports being particularly vulnerable, some flights have already been canceled due to soaring fuel costs. Regional airline Skybus has suspended one of its routes as a direct consequence of these rising prices.
Impacts on French airports and fuel sourcing
According to estimates from energy analysis firm Kpler, French airports may soon face similar challenges. George Shaw, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, stated,
“France has the next-biggest deficit between supply and demand in our estimations after the U.K.”
He added that France is in a relatively favorable position to obtain additional fuel from sources outside the Gulf region.
Record fuel prices and potential shortages
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, instigated by U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran, has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil had recently been transported. This closure has severely disrupted global energy markets, causing European jet fuel prices to reach a staggering $1,900 per metric ton, as reported by the specialized publication Argus.
While European airports currently possess sufficient fuel to maintain flight operations, Argus has issued warnings regarding possible shortages. Projections indicate that Portugal might deplete its jet fuel reserves within four months, Hungary within five, Denmark within six, and both Italy and Germany within seven months. France and Ireland could face shortages in eight months, while Poland is expected to remain self-sufficient in jet fuel.
Ourania Georgoutsakou, managing director of the Airlines for Europe lobby, expressed concerns regarding the
“current situation in the Middle East and uncertainty around how long it will last,”
noting its implications for jet fuel availability in Europe over the coming weeks and months.
Even prior to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, airlines had warned of a structural deficit in kerosene supply within the European bloc, attributed to sanctions on Russian oil and diminishing refining capacities. The region’s dependence on crude imports—primarily sourced from the Middle East—has long placed Europe in a precarious position regarding its jet fuel supply.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted last year that Europe has consistently been a net importer of jet fuel, with imports fulfilling approximately 30 percent of the region’s demand. They cautioned that this increasing dependence, coupled with uneven infrastructure development, heightens the risk of localized shortages and price fluctuations, especially if geopolitical tensions or sanctions further hinder global jet fuel supply.
Despite being identified as the second-most vulnerable country to a jet fuel crisis, Shaw believes that France may experience fewer difficulties than London in securing necessary kerosene supplies, even if Gulf imports remain blocked. He indicated that France could source additional fuel overland from the Netherlands or Belgium, which serve as key oil hubs in Europe.
As the fuel crisis develops, airlines are struggling to conserve fuel amidst the ongoing conflict. Since the onset of hostilities in Iran, airlines have been rerouting flights to avoid the Gulf, resulting in increased kerosene consumption. Eurocontrol, the European air traffic organization, estimates that
“1,150 flights are likely to continue to be impacted by reroutings every day during the summer as long as the conflict lasts in its current form.”
A prompt resolution to the crisis appears unlikely, especially following U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent warning to Iran, indicating that
“We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong.”
This ongoing uncertainty leaves airports and airlines increasingly anxious about their fuel access.
As hostilities persist, Eurocontrol has cautioned that the extended conflict will exacerbate the impact on fuel demand, leading to higher prices and potential shortages across various regions, which may ultimately influence flight volumes and ticket prices.