LONDON — The Iranian government has issued warnings of potential attacks on European cities in response to military operations backed by Donald Trump, prompting heightened security measures across the continent.
Recently, Iranian drones targeted Cyprus, striking a British Royal Air Force base while others were intercepted before reaching their targets. In reaction, the United Kingdom, France, and Greece have deployed jets, warships, and helicopters to bolster Cyprus’s defenses against further drone incursions.
Escalating threats from Tehran
Amidst declarations from British, French, and German leaders about readiness for defensive military actions in the Middle East, Iranian officials have threatened retaliation against these nations on European ground.
“It would be an act of war. Any such act against Iran would be regarded as complicity with the aggressors,”
stated Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, during an interview with state media.
Mark Rutte, the current NATO leader and former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, underscored the gravity of the threat posed by Iran, indicating that its ambitions extend deep into Europe. He remarked,
“Iran is close to getting its hands on a nuclear capability and on a ballistic missile capability, which is posing a threat not only to the region — the Middle East — but also to us here in Europe.”
Iran’s missile capabilities and drone warfare
Experts suggest that Iran has been developing intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 10,000 kilometers, potentially encompassing parts of Europe and the United States. Antonio Giustozzi from the Royal United Services Institute noted, “Realistically, the further away you fire them, the less precise they will be.” He speculated that even a few long-range missiles might be used primarily to instigate fear rather than for precise strikes.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran possesses several medium-range missiles capable of reaching approximately 2,000 kilometers, threatening parts of southeastern Europe, including Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania. In response to this threat, Romania has increased military security at its U.S. missile shield site in Deveselu.
Additionally, Iran has heavily invested in drone technology, with its “Shahed” drones reportedly being utilized by Russian forces amid the Ukraine conflict. These drones have a claimed operational range of up to 2,500 kilometers, allowing them to potentially reach targets across Europe.
Giustozzi remarked that even commercially available drones could be manipulated to cause disruption within Europe, facilitated by Iran’s network of sleeper agents. This may involve coordinated drone flights over civilian airports, resulting in significant interruptions to air traffic.
Iran’s historical pattern of intimidation extends beyond drone strikes; its state-sponsored terrorism includes a mix of direct assaults and reliance on organized crime for plausible deniability. Past incidents highlight a persistent effort to target individuals critical of the regime, particularly within the Iranian diaspora in Europe. This includes notable cases of assassination plots and cyberattacks.
As tensions continue to rise, the European community is advised to remain vigilant, particularly concerning cyber warfare. Experts predict that Iran could launch new cyber operations against European nations, targeting critical infrastructures. Henna Virkkunen, a European Commission Executive Vice President, stressed the importance of monitoring cybersecurity, stating, “We know that the online dimension is also very important.”
In conclusion, the current geopolitical climate illustrates the complex and multifaceted challenges posed by Iran, highlighting the need for heightened awareness and preparedness among European nations.