Following a closely contested first round of voting, Ecuador is set for a run-off election in mid-April to determine its next president. In the initial round, President Daniel Noboa edged out leftist candidate Luisa González, who significantly outperformed expectations set by pre-election polls.
Political dynamics at play
The elections come at a time when Ecuador grapples with rampant gang-related violence, a crisis exacerbated by the surge in cocaine trafficking in recent years. Noboa, who has been in office since 2023, had aimed to secure a decisive victory in the first round. To avoid a run-off, he needed to achieve either over 50% of the votes or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over his closest competitor.
However, González, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, finished a narrow second, capturing 43.8% of the votes compared to Noboa’s 44.3% with 91% of ballots counted. The remaining candidates fell far behind, illustrating the tight race between the two political newcomers.
Candidates’ backgrounds and challenges
Noboa, 37, comes from a wealthy background in the banana export business and entered politics in 2021, winning a seat in the National Assembly and later chairing its Economic Development Commission. His rise to prominence was swift, particularly during the snap elections necessitated by the dissolution of the National Assembly under former President Guillermo Lasso.
On the other side, González, 47, rose to political fame as the candidate for Correa’s leftist Citizen Revolution party, aiming to resonate with voters seeking change. Correa, who led the country from 2007 to 2017, has faced legal troubles since being sentenced in absentia over corruption charges.
Under Noboa’s administration, Ecuador has struggled with increasing gang violence and frequent power outages. His government took a decisive stance against organized crime, mobilizing military forces in regions with high crime rates. Despite a reported decrease in the murder rate, from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 in the following year, this figure remains significantly higher than the 6.85 per 100,000 recorded in 2019.
While Noboa defends his administration’s actions as a strong response to crime, critics argue that his efforts have not been sufficient. Concerns have also arisen regarding some of his decisions, such as a controversial police raid on the Mexican embassy last year, where former Vice President Jorge Glas was residing.
In her campaign, González has pledged to tackle crime more effectively and to revitalize the economy, asserting that she can transform the “dark reality” that leaves many citizens feeling unsafe.
“No one feels safe,” she emphasized during a recent rally, vowing to bring significant changes to the country’s current situation.