The initiation of peace negotiations regarding Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has prompted a flurry of statements from US officials, outlining what Ukraine may expect—and what it should not. However, clarity remains elusive concerning any conditions or concessions that Moscow is willing to entertain.
During a recent announcement, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the potential for peace, stating, “Great talks with Russia and Ukraine. Good possibility of ending that horrible, very bloody war.” His remarks followed discussions with both Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as negotiations were set to commence at the Munich Security Conference later this week. The upcoming talks are expected to be challenging, focusing on possible compromises and concessions.
Ukraine’s expectations vs. Russia’s demands
It appears that, three years into Moscow’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine is being pressured to lower its expectations. Neil Melvin, the International Security Director at the Royal United Services Institute, noted that the Kremlin seems to be entering these negotiations from a position of strength, having already articulated its negotiating stance, which he described as being “on a very high level.”
“Some of the demands that Russia will make through negotiation have already been recognised, such as that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO,” said Melvin.
While he mentioned that there could be some flexibility regarding NATO membership, he indicated that Russia might seek a long-term commitment, potentially revisiting the issue in 20 years. Furthermore, Melvin emphasized that Russia may prefer to negotiate directly with Trump, rather than engaging with Ukraine or European leaders.
Russia’s vision for peace
As discussions unfold, the question arises: what does Russia truly want from these negotiations? Andrew Novo from CEPA’s Transatlantic Defence and Security Programme argues that while Putin may desire to conclude the current phase of warfare, this does not necessarily equate to genuine peace.
“The West wants peace. Ukraine wants peace. Putin wants peace. The Russian people want peace. But their ideas of what a peace looks like are very, very, very different,” Novo stated.
Moreover, Melvin asserts that peace is not the primary objective for Russia. Instead, he believes that Putin’s historical vision encompasses a greater Russia, which includes territories currently part of Ukraine, perceived by Putin as historically significant to Russia. Additionally, Melvin pointed out that part of Russia’s strategy is to undermine Euro-Atlantic solidarity and reduce the US security presence in Europe.
As the negotiations proceed, Moscow’s agenda will likely center on achieving maximalist gains with minimal concessions. Melvin noted, “It is very clear that the Russians will also push for a political settlement inside Ukraine that is in their favour.”
These demands may include the replacement of President Zelenskyy with a leader more amenable to Russian interests, federalization of Ukraine, recognition of Russian as a second official language, and the reduction of Ukraine’s military capabilities. Furthermore, Moscow is expected to advocate for Ukraine’s neutral status, limiting foreign military presence unless under a UN peacekeeping mandate.
As the date for the US delegation’s meeting with Zelenskyy approaches, the Ukrainian government is hopeful for clarity and reassurance regarding continued US support in the face of an increasingly precarious situation as the war nears its three-year anniversary.