As anticipation builds globally, the Kremlin remains tight-lipped about President Vladimir Putin’s potential attendance at the forthcoming peace talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey. Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, indicated that an announcement regarding Russia’s representative at the Istanbul meeting will be made when Putin finds it appropriate.
While Peskov did not confirm whether Putin would participate directly or send a delegate, he did state that “the Russian side continues to prepare for the talks in Istanbul.” In contrast, President Zelenskyy has reiterated his willingness to travel to Turkey in person, expressing that he is awaiting a response from Moscow. In a recent statement, he remarked, “Moscow has remained silent all day regarding the proposal for a direct meeting. A very strange silence,” emphasizing the need for Russia to halt the ongoing conflict. “The sooner, the better. There is no sense in continuing the killing,” he asserted.
Ukraine’s stance on direct negotiations
Zelenskyy’s administration has made it clear that the Ukrainian leader will only engage in discussions with Putin. Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated that talks with lower-ranking officials would be futile, asserting, “Only Putin can make a decision to continue the war or stop the war.” Podolyak has firsthand experience in this realm, having represented Ukraine during the initial negotiations soon after Moscow’s full-scale invasion in early 2022.
A historical overview of previous talks
The first attempt at negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian representatives occurred shortly after the invasion began, on 28 February 2022, near Belarus, a significant ally of Russia. Following several rounds of discussions in Belarus and online formats, the delegations convened in Istanbul on 29 March 2022. During these earlier talks, Ukraine called for an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Conversely, the Kremlin maintained that the invasion was justified by what it termed the “root causes” of the conflict, including NATO’s alleged breaches concerning Eastern European expansion and perceived discrimination against ethnic Russians within Ukraine. Additionally, Russia’s narrative included vague assertions of a need for the “denazification” of Ukraine, claims that have yet to be substantiated by credible evidence.
Currently, the Kremlin aims to resume discussions based on the previous negotiations that took place in March 2022. Putin suggested that the talks should continue from where they were left off in 2022, while a Russian presidential aide reiterated that any forthcoming negotiations must reflect the context of those earlier discussions.
The proposals from the 2022 draft agreement, which some analysts have interpreted as tantamount to a complete surrender by Ukraine, included stipulations that would require Ukraine to renounce its dreams of NATO membership and amend its constitution to ensure neutrality, prohibiting alliances or hosting foreign military personnel. Moreover, Moscow sought guarantees from major powers, including the US, UK, and China, to uphold this agreement, alongside restrictions on the size and capabilities of the Ukrainian military.
As we look to the future, it appears that Moscow is poised to reiterate these demands despite its inability to achieve key strategic objectives in the ongoing conflict, including capturing regional capitals and reaching the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk, areas that have been under Russian occupation since 2014.