On Sunday, November 16, voters in Chile will head to the polls to select a successor to President Gabriel Boric, who is constitutionally barred from seeking immediate re-election. This election unfolds in an atmosphere of heightened political polarization, with the issue of security taking precedence over the economic and social topics that previously dominated national discourse.
Historically regarded as one of the safest nations in Latin America, Chile has witnessed a troubling rise in transnational organized crime since 2021, despite a homicide rate of just 6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, as reported by the World Bank. Incidents of kidnappings, extortion, contract killings, and violent robberies attributed to gangs such as the ‘Tren de Aragua’ have significantly shifted public perceptions regarding safety.
Main candidates in the spotlight
The current frontrunners in the polls include communist candidate Jeannette Jara, far-right contender José Antonio Kast, and radical libertarian Johannes Kaiser, all of whom are focusing their campaigns on crime reduction and immigration control.
Jara, who holds the distinction of being the first communist to head a unified left-wing ticket, previously served as labour minister. She pledges to enhance police forces, construct new correctional facilities, and maintain the security initiatives established during Boric’s administration, which includes the formation of a new Ministry of Security and specialized units targeting organized crime.
Immigration concerns rise
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, Kast—who narrowly lost the election in 2021—emphasizes a stringent anti-immigration stance, advocating for fortified borders, large-scale deportations, and an increased police presence to tackle irregular migration.
Meanwhile, surprising many, Johannes Kaiser, a radical libertarian, has gained traction with provocative rhetoric and a campaign style reminiscent of Donald Trump, complete with ‘Make Chile Great Again’ caps, vibrant flags, lively music, and appeals against both migrants and international organizations.
As Chile approaches these pivotal elections, the remnants of the social unrest witnessed in 2019 still linger. However, the focus of public discontent has shifted from a protest against inequality to a strong reaction against crime and illegal immigration.
Political analysts highlight that young voters, who make up approximately 25 percent of the electoral roll, will play a crucial role in determining the election outcome. Political scientist Guillermo Holzmann noted, “For this group, credibility and concrete results matter,” signaling a trend toward more extreme political options.
With 15.7 million citizens eligible to vote and compulsory suffrage in place, Chile braces itself for what could be one of the most consequential elections in recent history. Current polling indicates that it is unlikely any candidate will secure the 50% majority required to avoid a runoff, making a December 14 runoff election between Kast and Jara a likely scenario.
For a significant portion of the electorate, the primary concern has shifted away from discussions about economic models and social reforms, now prioritizing security. This Sunday’s elections could bring about a fundamental transformation in the landscape of Chilean politics.