The recent agreement between Israel and Hamas to initiate the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza has reignited discussions surrounding the potential release of prominent Palestinian prisoners. A key figure in this conversation is Marwan Barghouti, who has spent over 20 years in prison, sentenced to multiple life terms by Israeli authorities, who view him as a terrorist mastermind.
Israeli intelligence has firmly stated that Barghouti’s release remains a “red line” in ongoing negotiations, despite Hamas’s attempts to include him in any hostage swap. This sentiment was echoed by Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian, who confirmed on Thursday that Barghouti would not be part of any release deals.
Barghouti’s significance to Palestinians
For many Palestinians, the 66-year-old Barghouti is regarded as a national hero. His leadership during the Second Intifada and his role as an elected official have solidified his popularity, with polls indicating that he would likely triumph in presidential elections, which have not taken place since 2005. A May 2025 poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) revealed that Barghouti was preferred by 50% of respondents when compared to current Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khalid Mishal.
In hypothetical scenarios prior to the recent attacks, Barghouti outperformed Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh, receiving 61% of the vote compared to Haniyeh’s 34%. Despite his popularity, Barghouti has faced criticism from some Israeli leaders. Benjamin Netanyahu, for example, has previously questioned the legitimacy of calling Barghouti a leader, comparing him unfavorably to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Challenges facing Barghouti’s potential leadership
Barghouti was apprehended in 2002 and subsequently sentenced in 2004 for orchestrating attacks against Israelis. His refusal to acknowledge the legitimacy of Israeli courts during his trial has contributed to his image as a controversial figure. Although he has expressed support for the establishment of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, his views remain somewhat enigmatic due to the lack of communication from him during his imprisonment.
“There’s a lot of iconography and the legend built around him. But very few people know the man himself, or have heard him speak, or have seen him for a very long time,” said Amjad Iraqi, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
Currently, Barghouti is reported to be in solitary confinement and has faced allegations of severe mistreatment since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October 2023. His family has voiced concerns for his well-being, with the last footage of him surfacing in August, during a visit from Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.
As the political landscape in Palestine shifts, questions arise regarding how Barghouti’s potential release would impact Fatah and President Abbas, who may be reluctant to face a popular challenger. Analysts suggest that any hope for Barghouti to unite a fractured Palestinian movement may be overly optimistic, as he would enter a political arena marked by division and diminished legitimacy.
Experts emphasize that while Barghouti remains a significant figure, no single individual possesses the power to resolve the complex political challenges facing the Palestinian people. Dr. Matthew Levitt from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy notes that Hamas’s push for Barghouti’s release is more about preserving its own image than about the individual himself.
“You can’t have a Messiah complex on Barghouti,” Iraqi concluded, highlighting the unrealistic expectations placed on any single leader to catalyze change within a longstanding and multifaceted conflict.