Iran’s strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz is significantly influenced by a key decision-making body within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as highlighted by a leading Middle East expert.
Khatam al-Anbiya: A pivotal force in Iran’s military strategy
Professor Mehran Kamrava from Georgetown University in Qatar emphasizes the importance of the Khatam al-Anbiya, an institution frequently overlooked in discussions about Iran’s military strategies. This entity plays a crucial role in shaping Iran’s approach to the Strait of Hormuz and broader wartime strategies.
“Most likely Iran’s Hormuz Strait strategy and its broader strategy is shaped and influenced by the headquarters of Khatam al-Anbiya which is the central key security decision making within the Revolutionary Guards,”
Kamrava explained that during periods of conflict, Khatam al-Anbiya is tasked with coordinating military efforts, while in peaceful times, it focuses on strategic planning and scenario analysis for Iran.
Ongoing concerns over military and economic maneuvers
As for the future of Iran’s strategy, Kamrava suggests that the Revolutionary Guards remain on a war footing due to a history of Israeli interference in negotiations with the United States. This interference raises the potential for renewed conflict, either through direct attacks or provocations.
“The strategy now is vigilance and only of an assumption of a temporary pause in the war until the formal ceasefire agreement is signed,” Kamrava added, noting that ship traffic data indicates a cautious approach, with limited movements of bulk cargo vessels through the strait since the fighting subsided.
Iran’s recent proposition to charge ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz has become a contentious issue. Kamrava pointed out that signs of enforcement are emerging, and Iran seems resolute on this matter.
“It appears that the Iranians have now hit on something that they are not willing to negotiate over,” he stated, while acknowledging the possibility of some level of cooperation with regional partners, such as Oman, to facilitate the collection of fees.
The Iranian perspective is rooted in interpretations of international law regarding territorial waters, which extend 12 nautical miles beyond the coastline. Given that the strait is significantly wider at its narrowest point, both Iran and Oman assert their rights over the area.
Iran has framed the proposed fees as necessary for post-war reconstruction after significant infrastructure damage. However, Oman has firmly denied Iran’s claims of a mutual fee collection agreement, emphasizing its commitment to international maritime laws that prohibit such charges in natural waterways.
“The Strait of Hormuz is a natural passage, not created by human intervention, and therefore, no fees can be imposed on it according to the international agreements signed by the Sultanate,”
Oman’s transport minister stated.
World leaders are now focused on ensuring the safety and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Both the UAE and Qatar have reiterated their stance against Iranian control over this critical maritime route.
Recent visits by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Gulf nations underscored the importance of maintaining open navigation. Kallas warned of the dangers of allowing Iran to impose tolls, stating, “If we go down that slippery slope of giving the right to ask tolls or taxes over these waters that have been open before, then I think we will see this elsewhere in the world as well, and this is a very dangerous development.”
Starmer expressed similar sentiments, emphasizing the urgency of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for global energy supplies. He convened multinational discussions to address how allies can support the resumption of maritime traffic.
In Paris, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced that European nations and their partners are finalizing plans for a mission to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities cease. Barrot stressed that freedom of navigation in international waters is a shared global asset that must not be obstructed by new fees or regulations.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also voiced concerns, warning that any additional Iranian fees could lead to “unpredictable economic consequences.” She advocated for the unconditional restoration of freedom of movement in the Strait of Hormuz.
As diplomatic efforts continue, Pakistan is set to host Iranian and US delegations in Islamabad, potentially opening pathways for dialogue and resolution.