German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), experienced a significant setback on March 8, as his party failed to secure first place in the state election in Baden-Württemberg, Germany’s third-largest state.
Election results and public sentiment
In a closely contested election, the Green Party emerged victorious, garnering 30.2% of the vote, positioning them for a potential coalition with Merz’s CDU. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party also saw a remarkable increase, nearly doubling their previous results, finishing in third place with 18.8% of the votes.
Recent polling data highlights a troubling decline in Merz’s popularity, both on domestic and international fronts, since he assumed office approximately one year ago. According to YouGov’s European leader tracker, Merz’s net approval rating plummeted by 34 points from June 2025 to February 2026, landing at a stark -48. Only 23% of Germans view Merz favorably, while a substantial 71% express unfavorable opinions.
Additional insights from the ZDF Political Barometer indicate that 54% of Germans perceive Merz’s performance as poor, contrasting with 43% who view it positively. Moreover, a significant 60% of respondents doubt his ability to lead the CDU effectively in the future, with only 34% expressing confidence in his leadership.
Reasons behind the decline
Political expert Marc Debus from the University of Mannheim suggests that Merz’s declining ratings may stem from public disappointment over the slow implementation of promised reforms. “The CDU/CSU and the government under Friedrich Merz promised during the election campaign that change would come quickly and reforms would be launched rapidly,” he stated. “However, these reforms were by no means adopted and implemented as quickly as promised; it was only in the winter and this spring that key changes in economic and social policy were introduced.”
Debus also notes that regional elections, such as the one in Baden-Württemberg, serve as a reflection of the national political climate, with voters often using their ballots to express their approval or dissatisfaction with the federal government.
Merz’s situation is not unique in Europe, as many leaders are facing challenges in maintaining voter support. For instance, French President Emmanuel Macron has maintained a low approval rating, with only 19% of the population expressing favorable views. Similarly, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is struggling, with just 21% approval against 71% disapproval. In contrast, leaders like Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have managed to maintain slightly higher ratings, while Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen shines as the most popular leader among those surveyed, achieving a 43% favorable rating.
Debus attributes this widespread unpopularity to the ongoing difficulties that governments face in delivering on campaign promises, exacerbated by international crises such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which have strained economic conditions. “For example, more funds may have to be allocated to defence rather than to other policy areas. This can contribute to general dissatisfaction among voters with governments,” he explained.