As the US-Iran ceasefire approaches its expiration date, both nations are signaling their readiness to resume hostilities amid stalled peace talks. The future of the second round of crucial negotiations between Washington and Tehran remains uncertain following a series of tumultuous events.
The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance is prepared to return to Islamabad to spearhead the US delegation, which will also include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of President Donald Trump. These discussions, initially set to take place in the Pakistani capital this past Monday, were disrupted after Iran declared its withdrawal from the talks aimed at resolving a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and affected global markets.
The catalyst for Iran’s withdrawal was the US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel on its way to a port, which occurred on Sunday. US officials asserted that the vessel had ignored warnings and was attempting to circumvent the blockade imposed on Iranian ports.
Blockade escalates tensions
The blockade was enacted last week following Iran’s closure of the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz at the onset of the conflict on February 28, a move that has driven oil prices to rise dramatically worldwide. Iran contends that this naval blockade constitutes a breach of the ceasefire agreement, a claim that US officials contest. President Trump has maintained that US Navy operations will persist until Iran permits unrestricted maritime traffic through the vital waterway.
“The blockade, which we will not take off until there is a ‘deal,’ is absolutely destroying Iran. They are losing $500 million … a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run,” wrote Trump in a post on Truth Social.
Iran’s response to US threats
In light of escalating tensions, Iran has expressed its unwillingness to partake in any diplomatic initiatives under the looming threat of military action. Trump has made several statements on social media over the past few days, warning of intensified conflict and even suggesting the possibility of “blowing up” Iran if an agreement is not reached.
“Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table — in his own imagination — into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering,” remarked Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in a post on X on Monday. He further stated, “We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield.”
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite military unit with direct allegiance to the ayatollah, has issued warnings against any vessels attempting to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz without authorization. This waterway is critical for global trade, as it facilitates the passage of about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports, along with gas and other essential commodities such as fertilizers.
On Tuesday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at slightly more than $95 per barrel, representing a significant decline from nearly $120 prior to the ceasefire but still reflecting a roughly 40% increase compared to prices in early February.