The most important political action today is taking place in Belfast.
London and Dublin are trying once again to get Northern Ireland’s devolved government up and running almost three years after it collapsed in acrimony over an argument about a green-energy scheme.
There have been multiple aborted attempts over the last three years to kickstart the assembly, which requires power to be shared between two different political parties and was the bedrock of the Good Friday Agreement.
The political deadlock has been mainly down to cultural and domestic differences, including disputes over use of the Irish language and same-sex marriage.
But the agreement struck between the pro-Brexit, hardline Democratic Unionist Party and former Prime Minister Theresa May to keep the Conservatives in power in 2017 did little to improve relations with the hardline nationalist and anti-Brexit Sinn Féin.
If a deal to get the devolved government going again cannot be brokered, the DUP and Sinn Féin face the prospect of early assembly elections — not a tantalizing prospect after such a bruising election night.
However, there is cautious hope in London and Dublin that the general election might have changed things. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP felt the voters’ wrath on Thursday, and it was in no small part down to fury at the lack of an assembly, which came into sharp focus when thousands of appointments were canceled after nurses went on strike.
The assembly should be in charge of health care but as it’s not functioning, there are no ministers to hold accountable.
The DUP lost two seats in the election — North Belfast and South Belfast — and failed to pick up North Down, a seat previously held by an independent unionist MP. Sinn Féin lost Foyle to the more moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party.
If a deal to get the devolved government going again cannot be brokered, the DUP and Sinn Féin face the prospect of early assembly elections — not a tantalizing prospect after such a bruising election night.
Boris Johnson agreed with Leo Varadkar that they would work closely with the Northern Irish parties to help bring back the devolved government | Noel Mullen/Irish Government Press Office via Getty Images
Boris Johnson’s hefty majority, and the near certainty that Brexit will now happen, could also concentrate minds.
When the DUP held the balance of power in Westminster, there was seemingly little incentive for them to get Northern Ireland’s government up and running. Now they are facing the prospect of a Brexit they don’t like and with little leverage to thwart the government.
So having a devolved government may be their best chance to make sure Northern Ireland’s voice is heard in Brexit preparations, and in the upcoming trade talks.
London and Dublin have been jointly laying the groundwork for this week’s talks for a few months. Johnson agreed with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in a phone call on Friday that they would work closely with the Northern Irish parties to help bring back the devolved government.
There is very cautious optimism for the first time in years that this time there is a real incentive on both sides to make power-sharing work again.
This insight is from POLITICO‘s Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britain’s decision to leave the EU available to Brexit Pro subscribers. To request a trial, email [email protected].