The populists and the Greens have long been the two competing anti-establishment forces in Europe. Brexit is set to give the former a leg up in the European Parliament.
The departure of 73 British MEPs will consequently lead to an increase in representatives from the Euroskeptic Identity and Democracy (ID) group, surpassing the Greens’ new total of seats to become the fourth-largest force in the hemicycle.
According to two internal post-Brexit projections from the Parliament, ID, which has 73 members (none British), is set to gain three new seats, bringing its total to 76 MEPs.
By contrast, the Greens, which have 75 MEPs, will lose 11 British members and gain only four seats, which means they will have 68 MEPs.
In February 2018, the institution agreed to cut the number of MEPs from 751 to 705 after Brexit, and to allocate 27 of the 73 seats vacated by British lawmakers to 14 “under-represented” member states. As a result, countries like France and Ireland got additional seats.
“We will become the fourth group in the Parliament and we are very proud of that,” said Harald Vilimsky, an MEP from Identity and Democracy and the secretary-general of Austria’s Euroskeptic Freedom Party (FPÖ).
Despite winning fewer seats than expected in May’s European election, the Identity and Democracy group, with the help of powerful and popular parties like Italy’s League, France’s National Rally and the FPÖ, went from being minor and marginalized to the fifth-largest force in the chamber.
The change is unlikely to alter the control of pro-EU parties over big EU files like climate or industrial policy. But Euroskeptic MEPs, who have been isolated for decades, will have more speaking time in the Parliament’s plenary sessions and will speak before the Greens, have better chances to get legislative reports, and a higher probability that one of their members will lead a parliamentary committee.
“This means we are no longer part of the small groups,” said Gilles Lebreton, another ID MEP and member of National Rally. “If the three main groups can’t agree on something, our vote will be crucial and can change the balance.” He has his eye on the chairmanship of the Legal Affairs Committee once Lucy Nethsinga, the current chair and a British Liberal Democrat MEP, leaves on Brexit day.
However, many MEPs said that as pro-Europeans will continue to have a majority in the chamber, the traditional “cordon sanitaire,” which has so far limited the influence of Euroskeptics in the Parliament, would be maintained.
“The majority won’t change in the house and we as Greens are included in the important files,” said German Green MEP Daniel Freund.