Home Europe Sweden takes a chance on trust as Nordic neighbors lock down

Sweden takes a chance on trust as Nordic neighbors lock down

by editor

STOCKHOLM — When the history of the global response to the coronavirus pandemic is written, one corner of Europe could find itself in sharp focus: the Nordics.

Despite their clear political, economic and cultural similarities, these small nations have gone about fighting the virus in very different ways.

Norway, Denmark and Finland, with a combined population of around 15 million people, have been on lockdown for around a month. Schools, businesses and public spaces have been shuttered as the governments there have sought to bring a hard stop to the spread of the disease.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s 10 million citizens have been largely free to go about their business as normal: Schools and shops are open, gatherings of up to 50 people are allowed, and outdoor sports continue across the country, with the strategy more about slowing the virus than stopping it.

Over the Easter weekend, as Norwegians, Danes and Finns sheltered at home, Swedes were out and about.

“There will be many research areas where you will be able to learn a lot about the impact of these societal interventions” — Paul Franks, a professor of epidemiology at Sweden’s Lund University

At a café on the edge of Stockholm, scores of drinkers had gathered in a beer garden to listen to live music.

A musician played the song “Ain’t No Sunshine,” in tribute to Bill Withers, the American singer who died recently. Unlike fellow musicians John Prine, Adam Schlesinger and Ellis Marsalis, who also died recently, Withers did not die of the coronavirus.

“How many of you recognized that one?” the singer called out good-naturedly to scattered groups at their tables.

His voice also carried to a couple of older walkers on a nearby footpath, which skirted woods behind the café.

“I think that’s bloody irresponsible,” one of the walkers told her companion as she scurried past. “I don’t think this kind of thing should be allowed.”

Lessons for future

Over the coming months and years, researchers are likely to seize on the Nordic policy dichotomy and its long-term impact on things like death rates, economies and mental health as they seek to judge whether lockdowns work, experts say.

While a comparison of China’s coronavirus policies with those of Italy or the U.S. can quickly be clouded by cultural or demographic factors, a comparison of Sweden with its near-identical neighbors could offer a chance to gauge the success of differing approaches.

How London, Paris and Rome react to a future pandemic could depend on results of the current experiments in Oslo and Stockholm.

“There will be many research areas where you will be able to learn a lot about the impact of these societal interventions,” said Paul Franks, a professor of epidemiology at Sweden’s Lund University. “Lessons from the Nordics will be valuable for other countries and other pandemics.”

In the Nordics, as in the rest of Europe, the coronavirus initially felt like someone else’s problem.

In mid-January, with the Chinese city of Wuhan heading toward a lockdown, Swedish public health authorities said the chance of the virus coming to Sweden was “very low.”

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By mid-March things were looking bleaker as the virus spread to Italy, and cases started to turn up further north, in part driven by skiers returning from the Alps.

On March 10, Swedish authorities said the risk of the virus spreading in Sweden was now “very high.”

At this point European health authorities all had a key question to answer: lockdown or no lockdown?

On March 12, Denmark closed its schools and Finland and Norway did the same. Shops and restaurants followed.

Sweden has continued to allow groups of people to congregate in public spaces, even as other countries have imposed strict lockdowns | Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images

It briefly looked like Sweden would act in lockstep. Teachers sent students home with laptops for the weekend of March 21, half-expecting them to study from home the following week. It didn’t happen.

Sweden went its own way.

Norway closed its main ski resorts on March 13; Sweden kept its open for a further month.

Finland set up roadblocks to stop people leaving the region around the capital Helsinki; Sweden issued vague guidance against “unnecessary travel.”

“Our view is that you shouldn’t travel unless you have a good reason to go,” Anders Wallensten, deputy state epidemiologist, told POLITICO. “You must make sure that you do not visit, for example, elderly people or people at risk of more severe disease.”

Debate raged across the region. Editorial pages in each country questioned whether their own governments were on the right track or if their neighbor had made the correct move. Sweden’s lead epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has come in for criticism from scientists too, who say the country should have acted faster and gone further with its measures. A group of 22 researchers penned an op-ed in the daily Dagens Nyheter on Tuesday saying the Public Health Agency — of which Tegnell has been the public face — “had failed.”

While death rates in Sweden have been higher so far than in neighboring countries, no one knows what the long-term damage of lockdown might be and authorities in the other three Nordic states worry about what might happen when restrictions are relaxed.

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“It too early to say Sweden has messed up,” said a headline in Norwegian Daily VG on April 3.

Suffering Swedes

U.S. President Donald Trump had a go anyway.

“If we followed [the Swedish] approach, I think we might have 2 million dead,” he told reporters on April 10. “Sweden is having a lot of difficulty … Sweden is suffering greatly.”

So far, Sweden’s hospitals have coped with a surge in the number of cases of COVID-19, but its spread in the country’s care homes for the elderly set alarm bells ringing this week.

Sweden’s mortality rate per million of population is currently around twice that of Denmark, but half that of the U.K.

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said she wants her country to start gradually unwinding its restrictions after Easter, but little is known about what that will do to infection rates.

At the central station, trains were still running to all corners of the country, but things were much quieter than normal.

Across Sweden this Easter, locals were largely left to decide for themselves what the government’s directive to “act responsibly” meant in practice.

Local soccer clubs held training sessions for youngsters, but not matches.

At a local DIY supplies shop, a big blue sign had been placed outside the main door telling anyone in quarantine not to enter and asking patrons to keep 1-2 meters apart. Inside, the rules largely seemed to be being followed.

At the central station, trains were still running to all corners of the country, but things were much quieter than normal.

Vladimir Svec, a 28-year-old doctor, was waiting in the departure hall before heading up to Hudiksvall, a couple of hours’ ride north, where he planned to live permanently.

“I think the government is right to let those who are fit and well travel around the country; I think it might help build the country’s immunity,” he said. “But that is just my view, I really hope it proves to be correct.”

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