Home Europe The battle for Germany’s center right

The battle for Germany’s center right

by editor

BERLIN — He’s a white, married Catholic father of three from North Rhine-Westphalia with a law degree and an ear for music.

Meet Armin Laschet, Friedrich Merz and Norbert Röttgen, the three men vying to lead Germany’s Christian Democrats and succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor.

If the trio look like cookie-cutter versions of the same person on paper, in the flesh they offer distinct visions and approaches to the post with significant implications for both Germany and its role in Europe. About the only thing one can say for certain about Merkel’s likely successor at this stage is that he will be a man.

Until the sudden resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as party leader earlier this month, the chances any of the three would become chancellor after Merkel’s final term ends in 2021 were slim to none. Now they’re all in the running.

The challenge they face is the same one that tripped up Kramp-Karrenbauer: unite the center right, which is riven by divisions after Merkel’s long reign, while also giving Germany new orientation and hope at a time of growing unease over the country’s prospects.

Friedrich Merz arrives for the press conference to announce his CDU Leadership Candidacy, on February 25, 2020 | Maja Hitij/Getty Images

Failure on either count could trigger not just a further erosion of support for the CDU, but the final collapse of Germany’s Volkspartei system, the big-tent party structure that has underpinned the country’s political stability for decades.

Less than five years ago, the Christian Democrats were polling above 40 percent. The party was hammered in the wake of the refugee influx in 2015, however, and is now well below 30 percent. Many in the party fear it’s on the same path as the Social Democrats, which have collapsed in the polls to the mid-teens.

For the CDU, avoiding a similar fate will be a tall order.

Merz, who lost out to Merkel for the party’s leadership in the early 2000s and then all but disappeared, has captured the imagination of the party’s right with a law-and-order message he’s betting will draw back CDU voters who defected to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Yet many in the CDU worry that even if a shift to the right wins back some voters, it would also cost them the center Merkel proved so adept at occupying.

Merz would also create waves in Europe. A critic of the European Central Bank’s asset purchases, Merz has said he would have kicked Greece out of the euro during its debt crisis.

Armin Laschet speaks during the press conference to announce their CDU Leadership Candidacy, on February 25, 2020 | Maja Hitij/Getty Images

He has made no secret of how he sees the current contest: “It’s a choice between continuity and a new beginning,” he said at a news conference to announce his candidacy on Tuesday.

The remark was a swipe at Laschet, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia who is a close ally of Merkel’s. After Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s original choice, began to flag in recent months, the chancellor quietly put her weight behind Laschet. Following Kramp-Karrenbaer’s resignation, Laschet quickly became the establishment favorite.

A gregarious politician with a common touch, Laschet combines Merkel’s moderation with a folksy appeal.

“I want the CDU to remain the Volkspartei of the center,” Laschet told German public television Tuesday evening, adding he was prepared to do “whatever it takes” to prevent Merz from changing the party’s direction.

Laschet argues the past 15 years under Merkel have been among the most prosperous in German history. So why change a winning formula?

While that’s seductive logic to many, others in the party long for traditional conservatism and less of Merkel’s middle-of-the-road approach, whether on social and economic policy or in foreign affairs.

Laschet tapped Health Minister Jens Spahn, who is popular with conservatives, to run alongside him as his prospective deputy. Spahn finished third in the last leadership contest in 2018, losing to both Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merz, who lost the runoff by a slim margin. Despite his defeat, Spahn, 39, is seen as a strong candidate to lead the party down the road. His decision to join forces with Laschet, instead of running on his own again, is also likely to boost Laschet’s prospects.

Norbert Röttgen speaks to the media to confirm his candidacy for the leadership of the CDU on February 18, 2020 | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

While Laschet doesn’t have much of a national profile, as the leader of Germany’s largest state — a position he won to the surprise of many in his own party in 2017 — he would appear to have the leg up over both Merz and Röttgen, given Merkel’s endorsement and his network in the party.

But he’s no shoo-in. With an eight-week campaign ahead, his advantage could quickly evaporate, especially as German media subjects his record to more scrutiny. Laschet’s suggestion in 2014 that the West cooperate with Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad in the fight against ISIS is already coming back to haunt him, for example.

Röttgen, who chairs the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee, once beat Laschet for the leadership of the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia. But he lost the ensuing election to the Social Democrats — a defeat that almost ended his political career and led to a break with Merkel, with whom he was once close.

Though Röttgen, whose candidacy came as a surprise, is highly regarded abroad, both for his intellect and his principled stands on issues such as Russia’s annexation of Crimea, it’s unclear whether he can build the broad coalition he’d need among the party delegates to back him.

For now, he looks to be the man in the middle, with the right of the party pushing Merz and the establishment Laschet. That could leave Röttgen well placed if the party splits between the other two.

And with the simmering dispute between the CDU’s warring factions threatening to pull the party even further apart, a compromise candidate might be just what it needs.

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