LONDON — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson could have to keep extreme social distancing measures in place for more than a year to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from coronavirus, advisers have suggested.
A team of scientists at Imperial College London, one of many groups advising government strategy on the disease, said in a report revealed on Monday that around 510,000 deaths would occur in Britain if no action was taken.
They said that number could be halved under the route the U.K. was taking until this afternoon, when Johnson announced a dramatic step-change in isolation measures. Previously the government was seeking to slow the epidemic without stopping its spread, while protecting those most at risk.
But the number of deaths would be slashed again as long as the new measures Johnson has now announced — including social distancing for the entire population, isolation for people with the virus and members of their household, and possible school and university closures — remain in place for months.
The researchers warned that if the measures are relaxed, cases of coronavirus will again begin to rise. “To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population — which could be 18 months or more,” the report said.
The scientists said the government could turn on and off the social distancing plan for periods in line with the impact of the disease, but estimated that the measures would have to be in place for at least two-thirds of the time until a vaccine is available for the best effect.