PRAGUE — In a significant turn of events, the right-wing populist Andrej Babiš and his ANO movement have emerged victorious in the recent Czech parliamentary elections, with preliminary results indicating a commanding lead. As of late Saturday, ANO has garnered approximately 35 percent of the votes, according to counts from over 98 percent of electoral districts, leaving Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s governing center-right coalition, Spolu (Together), trailing at around 23 percent.
“I am happy,” Babiš declared to a crowd of enthusiastic supporters at his campaign headquarters, where he was met with cheers as an old Italian hit by Ricchi e Poveri resonated in the background.
The State Election Commission is in the process of finalizing results from over 14,800 locations throughout Czechia and beyond, with an official confirmation expected by Monday. However, the new mail-in voting procedures might introduce some delays.
Election dynamics and voter turnout
This election cycle saw a total of 4,462 candidates from 26 parties vying for seats, with an impressive voter turnout estimated at 68 percent—the highest rate since the 1998 elections. The STAN (Mayors and Independents) party, a member of the current governing coalition, has secured around 11 percent, while the far-right, eurosceptic Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party stands at 8 percent, a decrease from earlier opinion polls. The Pirate Party, which was part of the former governing coalition that disbanded last year, has also managed to secure 8 percent.
Among the unexpected outcomes was the rise of the right-wing populist Motorists for Themselves party, which is projected to gain entry into parliament with about 7 percent of the vote, having hovered just above the 5 percent threshold during the campaign. Conversely, the far-left Stačilo! (Enough) party, which had previously polled higher, is on track to not meet the necessary support.
Implications for the EU and future governance
The political landscape in Czechia is now under close watch by European leaders, particularly given Babiš’s controversial positions, which include plans to withdraw from the ammunition initiative in Ukraine, challenge NATO’s military spending expansions, and confront the European Commission over the Green Deal. Analysts warn that Babiš’s return could position the Czech Republic alongside Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia as a potential challenge for the EU.
“I believe that if we look at his statements and his allies in Europe — like Viktor Orbán and what he has done with Hungary — he [Babiš] will start pushing the Czech Republic toward the margins,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský cautioned.
Despite his electoral success, Babiš is unlikely to secure an outright majority in the 200-seat lower house. All mainstream parties have ruled out collaboration with him, compelling him to seek support from more extreme factions, such as the Motorists for Themselves or the SPD, who have conflicting views on Czechia’s role in the EU and NATO.
Babiš expressed his intention to pursue the formation of a minority government, stating, “We will lead talks with the SPD and Motorists and strive for a single-party government led by the ANO movement.” This potential coalition arrangement has raised concerns among political analysts, including Otto Eibl from Masaryk University, who noted that while a minority government may not directly mirror the situations in Slovakia or Hungary, the formation of a more complex coalition could lead to significant issues.
Babiš’s campaign focused on promises of reduced energy costs, increased pensions, and prioritizing Czechia’s interests over those of Ukraine. His populist style has drawn comparisons to Donald Trump, and as a billionaire agricultural tycoon, he previously served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021. His recent presidential bid in 2023 ended in defeat to Army General Petr Pavel.
In Brussels, Babiš remains a prominent figure, especially amidst a longstanding legal case concerning allegations of defrauding the EU of €2 million, which enabled his agricultural business, Agrofert, to receive subsidies aimed at medium-sized enterprises. This case is currently pending a verdict from the Prague District Court, with Babiš maintaining his innocence and claiming that the allegations are politically charged.
President Pavel has announced plans to meet with all parties that succeeded in the elections on Sunday, setting the stage for what promises to be a tumultuous period in Czech politics.