BUCHAREST — As Romania heads into the rerun of its presidential election this Sunday, all eyes are on George Simion, a 38-year-old nationalist and self-identified Trump supporter who currently leads the polls. The pressing question is: Which of the other candidates stands a chance of defeating him?
The previous attempt at a presidential election last November was upended by claims of illegal campaigning and Russian interference, leading to the unexpected victory of ultranationalist independent candidate Călin Georgescu, who is now barred from competing. With Georgescu out of the race, Simion, who heads the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), has taken the front-runner position. Current polling indicates that he is highly likely to advance to the second round on May 18, where he will face off against the other top candidates.
Polling predictions and potential challengers
According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, Simion is estimated to garner around 30 percent of the vote. The competition for second place is shaping up to be tight, with Crin Antonescu from the governing coalition likely to receive 24 percent, followed closely by Nicușor Dan, the centrist independent mayor of Bucharest, at 22 percent. Leftist-turned-nationalist Victor Ponta is expected to secure 10 percent, while reformist Elena Lasconi is anticipated to reach 7 percent.
However, the previous election’s unexpected results serve as a reminder that dynamics can shift dramatically in the days leading up to the vote. The influence of the diaspora vote, often unaccounted for in polls, could prove pivotal. Additionally, many voters remain undecided as the election date approaches.
Analyzing the candidates’ prospects against Simion
Political analyst Radu Magdin cautions against underestimating the public’s response to an extremist candidate like Simion, especially given the widespread frustration with corruption and the perceived ineffectiveness of traditional parties, namely the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL). He stated,
“Simion is the main representative of a strong anti-system feeling in Romanian society, so it remains to be seen if those who are not necessarily in favor of the system, but are looking for more mainstream options, manage to impose themselves against the anti-system wave.”
Examining the candidates in detail reveals various strengths and weaknesses:
- Crin Antonescu: As a former leader of PNL, Antonescu signifies the established political order, which may deter some voters. His coalition includes PSD and PNL, granting him access to a substantial network of supporters. Polls suggest he could potentially beat Simion in a runoff, bolstered by a solid party machinery.
- Nicușor Dan: The Bucharest mayor enjoys support mainly from urban voters, typically educated and affluent. However, he struggles to resonate with rural constituents. His campaign’s focus on urban issues may limit his appeal outside major cities.
- Victor Ponta: The former prime minister’s mixed polling results could allow him to forge a broader coalition against Simion, despite his past controversies. His platform appeals to traditional PSD voters, though recent comments have raised eyebrows.
- Elena Lasconi: Once a leading reformist contender, Lasconi’s momentum has waned, exacerbated by defections from her party to support Dan. Her recent controversial tactics may further complicate her campaign.
As Romania gears up for this critical election, the outcome remains highly unpredictable. Voter mobilization, particularly among those disillusioned with the mainstream political landscape, could reshape the final results in unexpected ways.