The future of Europe’s historic climate mission and its established barrier against the far-right are increasingly intertwined. Recent efforts to rejuvenate the continent’s faltering industries have forged an unusual but determined coalition of business interests, centrist political leaders, and far-right officials, all advocating for a reevaluation of the EU Green Deal. This legislative framework aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and promote harmony with nature.
Divisions within new coalitions
Despite their shared goals, these groups are divided on implementation strategies and the desire for collaboration. Business leaders are urging for the removal of regulations and penalties for polluters while maintaining the overarching climate objectives of the EU. Center-right figures are receptive to these appeals, yet they assert they will not partner with far-right entities to achieve these goals.
Far-right leaders believe that this hesitance will not last indefinitely. They argue that the shared opposition to the Green Deal could potentially foster a new right-wing coalition, which would help dismantle the established taboo preventing centrist parties from working with far-right groups. Alexandr Vondra, a Czech MEP from the European Conservatives and Reformists, stated,
“I think they are getting closer to our position. I think they are reading the political signals.”
All parties involved sense an opportune moment for change. Since its inception five years ago, the Green Deal has faced criticism and opposition but has never been seriously threatened with significant rollback until now. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk remarked on social media,
“The revolt against regulation is inevitable! Whether some in the EU like it or not, the time has come!”
Business demands and a shift in priorities
European industry groups have long voiced concerns about what they perceive as excessive burdens imposed by the Green Deal, arguing these hinder their operations and contribute to economic challenges within the EU. Markus Beyrer, the head of BusinessEurope, recounted, “Many business leaders tell me: ‘Good grief! Everywhere else, we can do our work. In Europe, we are spending more and more time filling out unnecessary paperwork.’”
Amplifying these concerns, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s inclination to eliminate regulations has bolstered the call for change among European businesses. The notion that the EU could lead with stringent regulations while inspiring global standards—previously dubbed the “Brussels Effect”—is now viewed as unrealistic. Beyrer reflected, “That concept wasn’t realistic a few years ago, and it seems completely implausible today.”
The chemical industry has played a crucial role in rallying a coordinated resistance. In February 2024, the Cefic, the leading European chemical lobby, gathered 73 industry leaders to endorse the “Antwerp Declaration,” a cross-sector appeal to prioritize competitiveness in the upcoming European elections. Their proposed solution includes reducing bureaucracy and eliminating regulatory inconsistencies.
Last week, the European Commission convened a roundtable to discuss potential changes to the Green Deal, which environmental groups criticized for favoring major polluters. Beyrer acknowledged, “We support the goals of the Green Deal, but we have criticized its implementation due to an avalanche of partly uncoordinated regulations that create excessive burdens… This is what we need to address.”
The EU and its ruling parties are responding. Following the significant victories of right-leaning parties in last June’s European elections, the Commission has shifted focus from ecology to competitiveness, with the “Compass for Competitiveness” marking its first major initiative. Combatting deindustrialization has now become a priority.
Similarly, the European Parliament has begun to mirror this change in direction, with the European People’s Party (EPP)—the political family of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen—traditionally a supporter of climate legislation, now challenging some of the rules it previously endorsed. Members from Central and Eastern Europe have long criticized the Green Deal for its ambitious nature, but Western European representatives, particularly Germans, are now voicing similar concerns, citing industrial grievances.
A pivotal moment occurred last month during a meeting of EPP national leaders in Berlin, where CDU representatives, set to regain power after upcoming federal elections, circulated a statement committing to considerably relax multiple pillars of the Green Deal, from renewable energy targets to border carbon taxes. According to a European diplomat present at the meeting, the document was accepted without objection, including by von der Leyen, who considers the Green Deal to be a vital legacy.
Since this gathering, several prominent EPP officials have begun discussing the possible suspension or rollback of the Green Deal. Tusk has called for a