In a significant pivot, European leaders are engaging in discussions about establishing a nuclear deterrent independent of American support, reflecting the mounting tensions within the transatlantic alliance during Donald Trump’s presidency.
Shifting defense strategies
Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner in the upcoming German elections, emphasized the need for Europe to forge its own defense path, suggesting that reliance on the U.S. for NATO’s nuclear protection is no longer viable. He pointed out that Germany must explore partnerships with other European nuclear powers, specifically Britain and France, to ensure its security.
“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us,” Merz stated.
This marks a transformative moment for Germany, which has historically opposed French initiatives aimed at enhancing European military collaboration, particularly in nuclear defense. Traditionally, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which Merz leads, has prioritized its relationship with the U.S. over calls for greater European autonomy in defense matters.
Concerns over NATO’s future
The evolving political landscape is underscored by a growing skepticism regarding America’s unwavering commitment to NATO. Merz voiced serious concerns about the possibility that Trump may not uphold NATO’s mutual defense obligations, urging European nations to bolster their own defense capabilities.
“We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally,” Merz remarked during an interview with ZDF.
As the German federal elections approach, the rhetoric from the U.S. administration remains combative, with Vice President JD Vance hinting at a potential withdrawal of American troops from Germany, which could significantly undermine the continent’s security framework.
In response, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are set to meet with Trump in Washington, hoping to dissuade him from aligning more closely with Russia and neglecting commitments to Europe.
Germany currently hosts American nuclear weapons as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements, alongside other European nations like Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Merz’s remarks signal a notable shift in strategy, particularly in light of previous rejections of French proposals for nuclear cooperation.
Macron has previously promoted the concept of a distinctly European nuclear deterrent, and officials in Paris have recognized a growing interest in this idea, particularly following the conflict in Ukraine. The acknowledgment from Merz is seen as a positive sign by French politicians who have long felt frustrated by Berlin’s reluctance to engage in nuclear discussions.
Jean-Louis Thiériot, a former French defense minister, described Merz’s comments as “striking,” indicating that they reflect a serious reassessment of the security landscape and the implications of a potential decoupling from U.S. support.
While some skepticism remains about the French public’s willingness to extend nuclear guarantees to Germany, there is a consensus among politicians in the U.K. that this is a critical moment for European leadership in defense.
As Europe grapples with these new dynamics, the call for a unified approach to nuclear deterrence is becoming increasingly urgent, with experts suggesting that discussions between the U.K. and France about collective nuclear strategies could be vital in the current geopolitical climate.
“It’s been on the table for five years, and if we don’t talk about it now, when Europe is in danger, we’ll never talk about it,” remarked Héloïse Fayet, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations.