John Kampfner, a well-regarded British author, broadcaster, and commentator, sheds light on the current geopolitical landscape in his latest book, “In Search of Berlin,” published by Atlantic. As a regular columnist for POLITICO, he provides insight into the evolving dynamics surrounding the war in Ukraine.
The unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump has left Europe grappling with uncertainty. One moment, Trump appears to align himself with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the next, he seems to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This erratic behavior has rendered the U.S. a questionable ally, placing Europe in a precarious situation.
Europe’s urgent need for unity
During a series of security briefings and conferences in Berlin and beyond this autumn, a palpable sense of alarm has emerged regarding the security landscape. Many discussions held behind closed doors underscore the urgent need for Europe to confront a stark reality: that its major powers must unite more than ever.
One source of optimism is the collaborative effort among the E3 nations—Germany, France, and Britain—to tackle the challenges posed by rising Russian aggression. In light of previous tensions, including the fallout from Brexit and disagreements between former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, recent developments indicate a shift towards greater cooperation.
To effectively counter potential future Russian offensives, European leaders must demonstrate unprecedented solidarity. As highlighted by various officials, the repercussions of inaction could far outweigh the costs incurred by supporting Ukraine. A failure to act could not only embolden Putin but also lead to an influx of refugees fleeing the conflict, surpassing any previous crises in scale.
The shifting landscape of transatlantic relations
The recent state visit of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to the U.K. illustrated this emerging unity. Both Steinmeier and King Charles emphasized the deep bond between their nations, reinforced by a collective response to the perceived threat of Russian expansionism.
At the governmental level, intense discussions are taking place. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz have established a mutual understanding, driven by shared foreign-policy challenges and domestic issues. This collaboration reflects a recognition that the loss of reliable U.S. support necessitates a reevaluation of European alliances.
“If the Americans are now acting as mediators between Russia and Europe, they no longer see themselves as partners within NATO.”
Despite the U.S. still being the nominal leader of NATO, its reliability as a partner is increasingly questioned. Observers note that the current state of readiness in Europe to confront Russian aggression remains inadequate, leaving European nations dependent on U.S. support.
The recent National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration has further fueled concerns, as it criticizes the very liberal values that underpin European democracy while showing a preference for far-right ideologies. This shift has prompted a reevaluation of past assumptions regarding American commitment to European security.
As the war in Ukraine continues and the threat of Russian expansion looms, European leaders must confront the difficult reality of their situation. With defense budgets under strain, the challenge lies in balancing national security needs with public service demands. While Germany is projected to increase its defense spending significantly by 2029, other nations like France and the U.K. are facing budget constraints that may hinder their military preparedness.
Furthermore, there is a growing concern among defense officials that if Ukraine is pressured into accepting a subpar peace deal, public support for military spending could diminish drastically. This could lead to a false sense of security, undermining the resolve to counter Russia’s aggressive posturing.
Putin’s regime fundamentally relies on perpetuating threats to maintain its political power and justify military actions. His recent declarations about Russia being prepared for conflict with Europe exemplify this strategy, emphasizing that he cannot afford to ease tensions.
The potential imposition of a dubious peace deal stemming from the original 28-point plan for Ukraine poses a serious risk for Europe. Should such an agreement be enforced, it would signal a return to historical power politics, effectively sidelining NATO and diminishing Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
In this tense atmosphere, one British defense official succinctly remarked, “We say it’s existential, but we don’t yet act as if it is.” The challenge for leaders like Merz, Starmer, and Macron lies in acknowledging the gravity of the situation and preparing their nations to rely on one another in an increasingly uncertain world.