BRUSSELS — The European Union is poised to continue its financial investment in Turkey, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intensifies a brutal crackdown on political dissent. Following the recent arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, Brussels has urged Turkey to “respect democratic values.” However, due to Turkey’s strategic significance, the EU is likely to overlook these violations.
Dimitar Bechev, a professor at the University of Oxford, commented on Erdoğan’s apparent confidence, stating that the Turkish leader believes, “whatever he does, the EU will have to deal with it.” This sentiment reflects the complex dynamics at play between Turkey and the European Union.
Turkey’s EU candidacy and its implications
Two unnamed European officials, privy to behind-the-scenes discussions, highlighted the EU’s expectations that Turkey must adhere to democratic principles as a candidate for EU membership. They expressed concern about Turkey’s political developments, noting, “We are following the situation in Turkey with great anxiety.” With over a thousand individuals, including journalists, detained by security forces amid rising unrest, they emphasized that these actions contradict the very logic of EU accession.
Turkey has held candidate status for EU membership since 1999. Although negotiations have stalled for nearly a decade, the country continues to receive billions in pre-accession funds. Additionally, Ankara has been allocated approximately 9 billion euros to assist in hosting Middle Eastern refugees and is set to receive significant financial support for its defense industries.
As a pivotal hub for oil and gas exports, Turkey enjoys trade relations with the EU valued at over 200 billion euros annually. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Turkey has also assumed a vital role in managing access to the Black Sea and enforcing sanctions against Moscow. Recently, Turkey has been considered a key contributor to potential peacekeeping missions in Ukraine.
Dimitar Bechev analyzes the situation, stating, “The status quo before İmamoğlu’s arrest was comfortable for the EU, because there was just enough democracy.”
Challenges in defense cooperation
As an EU candidate, Turkey stands to gain access to collective procurement budgets of up to 800 billion euros aimed at enhancing the Union’s defense spending, according to Brussels’ recent “2023 Preparedness Plan.” However, Greece and Cyprus, both with longstanding disputes against Turkey, are pressing for restrictions on this cooperation. European diplomats indicate they are considering implementing a clause to ensure that defense support does not undermine the specific security policies of certain member states.
With NATO-trained armed forces and an extensive military-industrial complex, Ankara is optimistic that these objections will be dismissed. Selim Yenel, Turkey’s former ambassador to the EU, emphasized that if Europeans desire Turkish participation in military areas—such as sending troops to Ukraine in the future—they will need to grant Turkey access to these funds. He remarked on the dire state of Turkey’s domestic situation, asserting, “There is no longer any rule of law in Turkey.” Nonetheless, he predicted, “Since it seems the EU needs Turkey, it will not exert pressure on us.”
In this complex landscape, Greece and Cyprus find themselves in a precarious position. As both countries were on the verge of normalizing relations with Ankara prior to the latest political unrest, they now must navigate a careful balancing act. A high-ranking Greek official stated, “We will certainly support a strong stance condemning the current events in Turkey, but we cannot be the catalyst for further escalation.” He acknowledged that even Athens must tread cautiously.
The defense industry remains a significant gap for Europe, paving the way for the compromise politics currently unfolding. Cyprus also faces a challenging diplomatic road, as Turkey has appeared to adopt a more conciliatory tone in recent informal discussions regarding the Cyprus issue held last week in Geneva. Michalis Hadjipantela, a Cypriot MEP, emphasized the necessity of effective EU pressure, advocating for “targeted sanctions.” However, he cautioned that “measures should be focused and linked to progress on aforementioned issues to prevent isolating the country further, which could lead to even more provocative policies.”
This article has been edited for clarity and coherence.