PARIS — France’s 2025 budget has successfully navigated a significant parliamentary milestone as of Friday, positioning Prime Minister François Bayrou at a critical juncture next week that could jeopardize his political career.
A joint committee consisting of lawmakers from both the Senate and National Assembly reached a consensus on Friday, allowing the proposed spending plans to move forward for a vote in both legislative chambers next week.
Details of the budget plan
While lawmakers did not drastically alter Bayrou’s budget strategy—which includes €53 billion in spending reductions and tax increases aimed at addressing the country’s substantial deficit, recorded at 6.2 percent of GDP in 2024, exceeding EU regulations—they did implement some minor modifications. Among these changes was a decision to freeze funding for medical assistance to foreigners instead of adjusting it for inflation.
Bayrou’s minority government lacks the necessary backing to pass the budget next week. Therefore, it is expected to invoke a constitutional provision that permits the government to enact legislation without a formal vote. This approach, however, puts the administration at risk of a no-confidence motion.
In December, former Prime Minister Michel Barnier tried a similar tactic to push through his budgetary proposals, only to be ousted by lawmakers, leaving France without a formal budget at the start of the year.
Political dynamics and challenges ahead
Unlike Barnier, who sought to collaborate with far-right factions, Bayrou is attempting to engage the Socialist Party as a potential ally to support his less ambitious financial agenda. However, discussions have yet to yield an agreement, particularly following inflammatory remarks made by the centrist prime minister regarding immigration this week, which have strained relations.
Members of the Socialist Party who participated in the joint committee voted against the budget proposal, making their stance pivotal as the vote in the chamber approaches on Monday. Although Bayrou does not need the Socialist Party to endorse the budget, he will likely require its members to abstain from any no-confidence votes to ensure his political survival.
“That is not our budget. We are in the opposition,” stated Boris Vallaud, the leader of the Socialists in the National Assembly.
However, in a development that may be favorable for Bayrou, Socialist leaders recognized that they managed to secure certain concessions to maintain social spending levels. “Would we have wanted more? Of course, of course we would have wanted more. But those who gamble on having less or having everything always take the risk of having less,” Vallaud remarked.