PARIS — French Prime Minister François Bayrou has managed to retain his position following a crucial night of votes, thanks to an unexpected alliance with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Bayrou successfully navigated two no-confidence votes that were brought against his government, as the far-right party opted not to pursue a motion that could have toppled his administration over budgetary disagreements.
National Rally’s stance on the government
During a session prior to the initial vote, National Rally lawmaker Yoann Gillet criticized the censure motion, labeling it a “masquerade.” He articulated that his party’s backing would be illogical, given that the measure lacked sufficient support even with their votes. Notably, Gillet expressed disapproval of Bayrou’s fiscal policies, referring to them as a “racket organized on the backs of those who work and produce in our country.”
Bayrou’s budget challenges
In the lead-up to the vote, Bayrou acknowledged the imperfections in his proposed budget. Nevertheless, he emphasized the necessity of passing a budget to ensure stability in France, which has been operating under a temporary spending measure after last year’s budgetary failures. He underlined the urgency of managing the country’s finances in light of looming challenges, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and other global disruptions.
To navigate the legislative landscape, Bayrou invoked a constitutional clause on two occasions this week, which allows him to enact laws without a parliamentary vote while enabling lawmakers to initiate no-confidence motions. His coalition, consisting of a slender majority of centrist and conservative lawmakers, does not possess the votes required to pass a budget without this maneuver, permitted under Article 49.3 of the French Constitution. To survive the no-confidence motion, it is essential for the government to secure at least one major opposition group’s abstention.
On Wednesday, Bayrou triggered Article 49.3 for a third time, with expectations of doing so again later in the week to finalize legislation related to the 2025 budget, suggesting he may face additional no-confidence votes in the near future.
Earlier this week, the center-left Socialist Party announced its intention to abstain from the no-confidence votes, reasoning that France requires a new budget for 2025. Nonetheless, the party indicated plans to propose its own censure motion in response to Bayrou’s recent comments suggesting that parts of France appeared to be “flooded” by immigrants.
While it may seem unlikely that the National Rally would support a no-confidence motion contradicting their anti-immigration stance, a source close to Le Pen, who requested anonymity, revealed that the party would not hesitate to vote for a motion if they believed it necessary to bring down the government. Such a scenario recalls the previous government of Michel Barnier, which was ousted in December with the backing of the National Rally, despite the motion being critical of their own policies.
“It’s hard to imagine the National Rally supporting a no-confidence motion that opposes anti-immigration rhetoric,” the source said.