PARIS — As President Emmanuel Macron prepares to unveil his next strategic move, expected on Wednesday or shortly thereafter, speculation abounds regarding his approach to navigate France’s escalating political and economic turmoil. The prolonged crisis has eroded confidence in Macron’s capability to deliver an effective solution, particularly as he faces a noticeable decline in support from several former allies, including three of his past prime ministers.
Political options: Snap elections or another prime minister?
Macron’s current options appear limited, centering around either the prospect of a snap general election or appointing a sixth prime minister since the start of his term in 2022. This time, he may consider selecting a center-left Socialist as prime minister, with the aim of breaking the legislative deadlock over the substantial budget cuts necessary to avert a debt crisis for the European Union’s second-largest economy.
In a dramatic turn of events, Macron accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu just 27 days into his tenure, instructing him to devise a solution to the current impasse by Wednesday evening. The atmosphere within Macron’s own circle is one of frustration. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, now leading Macron’s centrist Renaissance party, expressed his bewilderment regarding the president’s recent decisions, stating he “no longer understands” them.
Calls for change and potential alliances
Another former prime minister, Édouard Philippe, has intensified the pressure, urging Macron to consider stepping down after passing the budget, especially after witnessing the president cycle through three governments in less than a year. Adding to the complication, Élisabeth Borne, who was prime minister during the contentious legislation that raised the retirement age, suggested the need to reconsider that law, emphasizing the importance of knowing “when to listen and move.”
“The time ha[s] come to try out the left,”
said Olivier Faure, head of the Socialist Party, reflecting a potential shift in political strategy ahead of a crucial meeting with Lecornu. Faure criticized the previous leadership under center-right prime ministers and expressed the need for a new political direction.
Despite the allure of a new prime minister from the Socialist Party, Macron faces significant challenges. Appointing someone from the left would not only shift the focus of blame onto opposition parties attempting to pass the budget but would also require navigating complex negotiations regarding policies that may conflict with Macron’s current agenda.
The urgent meeting held by Lecornu with key lawmakers and party leaders aimed to address pressing issues, including passing a budget and resolving a statehood crisis in New Caledonia. However, the outcome remains uncertain, with indications that 48 hours would likely not suffice to solve the complications that led to Lecornu’s resignation.
Moreover, the absence of conservative leader Bruno Retailleau from the meeting signals a fracture in previous alliances. Retailleau has publicly criticized Lecornu’s government, citing its lack of inclusivity concerning Macron’s allies, and has firmly rejected any cooperation with Macron’s camp unless it results in a prime minister from a rival party, a situation termed cohabitation in France.
As Macron contemplates his next steps, the landscape remains fraught with uncertainty, and even a new prime minister by week’s end does not guarantee a clear path forward out of this political quagmire.