MUNICH — The Munich Security Conference was abuzz this weekend with discussions among European officials regarding a crucial dilemma: as the United States reassesses its military commitments in Europe, who will assume the role of the continent’s primary security provider? This question loomed large within the conference’s vibrant atmosphere, notably at POLITICO Pub, where diplomats and experts convened to share insights.
European allies evaluate their defense roles
Recent comments from former President Donald Trump have catalyzed European nations to reflect on their defense strategies, emphasizing the need for self-reliance in military matters. However, amidst these discussions, few allies appeared willing to step forward as the principal security leader. “Who is that person?” questioned Giedrimas Jeglinskas, chair of Lithuania’s National Security and Defense Committee. He noted that substantial military capability is essential for any nation to effectively lead in security matters.
Germany, with its status as Europe’s largest economy, awaits the outcome of its imminent elections to clarify its defense intentions. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has temporarily taken charge of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Poland has emerged as a significant military player, now boasting the third-largest military within NATO, just behind the United States and Turkey. Italy is currently leading NATO’s Allied Response Force, all of which illustrates the shifting dynamics within the alliance.
Increasing defense budgets amid changing alliances
As the situation evolves, NATO officials have acknowledged a need to adjust defense strategies, reducing reliance on U.S. military capabilities and encouraging European nations to shoulder more responsibility. A NATO representative revealed that European forces aim to field a corps-sized element of 20,000 to 45,000 troops, comparable to the U.S. Army’s Fifth Corps stationed in Poland. Defense budgets across Europe are also on the rise, with NATO’s spending target expected to increase significantly, moving beyond 3 percent of GDP.
Currently, approximately 80,000 American troops are positioned in Europe—a figure that has surged by over 25 percent since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The combined defense spending of European NATO members and the U.K. stands at around $460 billion annually, which is roughly half of the Pentagon’s budget.
“It’s clear where the United States is. It’s not in Europe,” said a former NATO official.
This shift is reflective of a broader realization among European nations regarding their defense posture, prompting urgent discussions at the Munich conference. French President Emmanuel Macron has already called an emergency meeting of European leaders to strategize on the continent’s future security leadership.
In preparation for NATO’s upcoming annual summit in The Hague, the alliance is encouraging its members to escalate their commitments, with plans for a new rapid response force capable of deploying 100,000 troops within 10 days in the event of a Russian aggression, and potentially 500,000 within six months.
Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, emphasized the collective necessity for member nations to step up their contributions. “Nations are now being asked to put up,” he stated, highlighting the need for a unified approach to defense leadership.
Despite the recognition of these challenges, NATO’s existing forces may struggle to address the potential vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal. The alliance’s reliance on American military infrastructure remains significant, particularly in deterring Russian threats. “It is critical that Vladimir Putin still believes in Article 5, and he does,” remarked another NATO official, underscoring the importance of U.S. commitment to European security.
In response to the current climate, some European leaders are embracing the opportunity to enhance their defense capabilities. Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson noted that this moment presents a chance for Europe to rise to the occasion and take on greater responsibilities, unfurling a new determination within the alliance.
Yet, as discussions unfold, the question persists: will any European nation step forward to fill the leadership void? “We’ve been talking about wakeup calls for some time,” remarked a German official, “We keep hitting the snooze button.”