PORT TALBOT, WALES — Julian Thomas, a seasoned worker in the steel industry, has experienced job loss on two occasions. After initially relocating back to South Wales, he spent another 22 years operating trains loaded with freshly-coiled metal at the Port Talbot steelworks. However, in November, he found himself redundant once more.
At 56, Thomas, a grandfather, had envisioned a long career at Port Talbot, but he is now exploring retraining options. He feels let down by a British government that has outsourced industrial jobs abroad and by a Labour party that he believes has broken its promises. “I genuinely believed they would help to keep this works open,” Thomas remarked, as he attended a jobs fair in a shopping mall built in the 1970s. He voted for Labour in the 2024 general election, swayed by their commitment to secure the steel industry’s future, yet he now faces a grim reality with the shutdown of the blast furnaces just three months later. “I can’t vote for people I think are doing nothing for you,” he expressed, contemplating support for either an independent candidate or Reform UK, the party led by veteran politician Nigel Farage.
A community in transition
Despite plans for a greener furnace to process scrap metal starting in 2028, and an £80 million government support initiative, the immediate loss of 2,500 jobs weighs heavily on Thomas and his community. Labour has maintained a stronghold in this region for over a century, but recent polls indicate a potential upheaval in the upcoming elections for the Welsh parliament, known as the Senedd, which could serve as a precursor to the next general election in 2029.
Many workers, feeling abandoned by traditional parties, are looking to Reform. While they may not fully endorse Farage, their disenchantment with Labour is palpable. Conversations with Labour and Reform officials across Welsh political circles reveal an atmosphere of anxiety. Many expressed their concerns anonymously, highlighting a right-wing party rising in popularity as the established center-left Labour grapples with its response.
Echoes of the past
The Port Talbot skyline is still dominated by the two blast furnaces, remnants of an industrial past that workers like Thomas and Jordan Griffiths, a former welder, remember fondly. Griffiths, who has worked in Port Talbot for four years and hopes to transition to the Hinkley Point nuclear power project, is facing the tough decision of leaving his young family behind during his commute.
“I would have to make that sacrifice to ensure financial stability for my family,” he noted, reflecting on the stark challenges ahead. Griffiths, who also voted Reform in the last election, is frustrated by the perceived disparity in support for newcomers compared to local residents in need of housing assistance.
As communities grapple with the fallout from deindustrialization, many young workers have begun seeking opportunities abroad, while others face the prospect of lower-paying, less secure jobs. A local careers center reports a concerning rise in calls related to mental health crises, with one period seeing 24 inquiries about suicide within two weeks.
The historical context cannot be overlooked; South Wales has experienced significant industrial decline before, particularly during Margaret Thatcher’s premiership in the 1980s. Yet, this time, the rising support for Reform UK presents a different challenge for Labour, as local sentiment shifts away from the party that has traditionally dominated.
In the wake of recent redundancies, workers are expressing their discontent through their electoral choices. Only a fraction of those previously loyal to Labour now plan to vote for the party in future elections, with many turning to Reform or even contemplating abstention.
As the political landscape evolves, Labour finds itself in a precarious position. Anti-Tory sentiment has historically shielded Labour from the right, but the emergence of Reform UK complicates this dynamic, with voters seeking alternatives that resonate with their experiences.
As the Senedd elections approach, Labour officials are increasingly concerned about the potential fallout and are strategizing to counter the rising tide of support for Farage’s Reform party. With a changing electoral system favoring proportional representation, Labour may have to reckon with a more significant Reform presence in the coming years.
With the political tensions manifesting in local communities, the path forward remains uncertain. As residents like Thomas and Griffiths navigate their post-industrial reality, their political choices may redefine the future of Welsh politics, leaving Labour with crucial decisions to make in response to the growing unrest and shifting allegiances.