BRUSSELS — The European Union’s leadership is preparing to attend a significant global climate summit next week, accompanied by a commitment to establish a new emissions reduction target. This promise follows a last-minute agreement reached among ministers on Thursday evening, aimed at salvaging their position ahead of the meeting.
The United Nations has urged world leaders to unveil their climate strategies for the year 2035, in line with the stipulations of the 2015 Paris Agreement, during a session in New York scheduled for next Wednesday. However, EU member states have faced challenges in reaching a consensus necessary for the nationally determined contribution (NDC) plan, which is central to the UN discussions. Earlier in the week, they acknowledged that they would miss the end-of-September deadline for submitting the new targets.
Drafting a statement of intent
In order to present something at the upcoming meeting, the EU countries have opted to prepare a “statement of intent.” Following extensive discussions, the bloc’s 27 environment ministers agreed on a two-page document, pledging to deliver a robust NDC before the COP30 climate summit commences in November. The anticipated target will range between 66.25 percent and 72.5 percent of 1990 levels of CO2 emissions.
Both the European Commission and Denmark, currently steering negotiations among EU nations, have praised this agreement as a demonstration of collective strength. “The EU is and will remain a global climate leader,” stated Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard. EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra emphasized that the accord reached on Thursday “allows us to confidently walk into New York next week.”
“The EU environment ministers’ statement of intent shows weakness and indecision at a time when Europeans need courage and clarity from our leaders,”
countered Mary Robinson, former Irish president and member of the Elders group of former world leaders, expressing skepticism about the ministers’ agreement.
Ongoing challenges and future discussions
While Thursday’s agreement marks a tentative step forward, it merely postpones further discussions for several weeks, as ministers will reconvene to finalize the formal NDC. The protracted negotiations leading to minimal changes in the statement indicate that challenging dialogues lie ahead.
The quest for the EU’s NDC is intricately linked to the bloc’s broader climate goal for 2040, which was proposed by the Commission in July. Deliberations on this goal have been halted following the formation of a blocking minority, which includes France, Germany, Poland, and Italy, postponing talks until national leaders convene in late October. This delay has also affected the anticipated approval of the 2035 target, as it was initially intended for the NDC figure to be based on the upcoming 2040 target.
The statement of intent that was agreed upon on Thursday serves as a compromise, enabling EU leaders to arrive at the New York summit with a tangible proposal. The UN has organized this meeting specifically for leaders to announce new targets, but prior to the agreement, EU leaders were omitted from a provisional list.
In order to formulate a 2035 plan before the November climate conference, the EU’s 27 national governments must now determine whether to pursue a specific target or adhere to the broad range established in their statement of intent. Some governments, notably those skeptical of the 2040 legislation, such as Slovakia, are wary of the upper end of the proposed range, as it aligns with the midpoint between the EU’s existing 2030 goal and the suggested new target. Conversely, nations advocating for a more ambitious agenda, such as Spain and Germany, regard the lower limit of the target range as insufficient.
Hoekstra indicated on Thursday his openness to either a precise figure or a range for the formal target, asserting, “I’m not religious about [either] of the two. I think the two could work. What we will push for is something that is truly ambitious.” Aagaard added that Denmark is prepared to convene an ad-hoc summit to approve the 2035 plan following discussions among leaders.