LISBON — In a significant political development, Portugal’s center-right Democratic Alliance coalition is projected to emerge as the frontrunner in Sunday’s snap election. However, it is anticipated that the coalition will not secure a governing majority, as the far-right Chega party may become the second largest faction in the nation’s parliament.
Based on exit poll data from Católica University, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s coalition is forecasted to receive between 29 and 34 percent of the vote. This outcome suggests a potential increase in the number of seats held by the Democratic Alliance, albeit insufficient for a majority.
Close contest between major parties
Meanwhile, the Socialist Party, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, is reportedly in a tight contest with André Ventura’s ultranationalist Chega party. Both are projected to garner between 20 and 26 percent of the votes, positioning Chega as a potential second-largest party in parliament, should these projections hold true.
“We don’t yet know if we’re the second- or third-largest party,” stated Chega lawmaker Pedro Pinto. “But we know that the system has been shaken … And we represent a governing alternative.”
This snap election comes just 14 months after the last legislative vote, triggered by the collapse of Montenegro’s center-right government following allegations concerning his integrity in the so-called “Spinumviva scandal.” Opposition lawmakers raised concerns regarding Montenegro’s connections to the Spinumviva data protection consultancy, which he established prior to his political career and is now managed by family members. The firm services several clients with government contracts, although Montenegro maintains that there are no conflicts of interest.
Political implications of the election outcome
Despite surviving multiple censure motions related to the Spinumviva controversy, Montenegro ultimately resigned after losing a confidence vote in parliament earlier this year. Public sentiment has shown significant discontent regarding the necessity of a snap election, leading to a backlash against the Socialists while favoring both the governing center-right and the far-right party that challenges the established democratic norms in Portugal.
Looking ahead, Montenegro has ruled out any governing alliance with Chega, indicating that a minority government might depend on implicit support from the center-left. Last year, Socialist Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos directed his party to cooperate constructively, allowing Montenegro to establish a minority government and subsequently pass a crucial budget bill.
However, relations between the primary political adversaries have deteriorated following the failed confidence vote in March, raising questions about whether the center-left will support the center-right’s governance this time around. Portugal’s constitution does not impose a timeline for the formation of a new government, nor does it mandate the dissolution of parliament in the absence of a new prime minister.
The constitution does prohibit snap elections within six months of a previous vote and during the final six months of a presidential term. With President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term set to end in March 2026, the earliest possible national election would occur in late spring of the following year.
Prior to the release of the exit poll results, Socialist Party president Carlos César conceded that the party was likely facing defeat, affirming that they would not pursue a government formation if they did not receive the largest share of the votes. “If the electors back the Socialists, we’ll be very happy,” César commented to state broadcaster RTP. “But if they don’t, we have to respect the will of the people.”
The election day unfolded without major incidents, though a violent occurrence was reported in central Lisbon, where Socialist Party candidate Miguel Coelho was allegedly assaulted by an elector advocating for Chega. The Portuguese police are currently investigating this attack on the center-left candidate.