LISBON — Approximately 25.5 percent of Portugal’s 10.8 million eligible voters had cast their ballots by noon on Sunday, according to reports from the electoral authority. This turnout is slightly higher than the 25.1 percent recorded at the same hour during the previous national election held in March 2024, which saw a final participation rate of nearly 60 percent, reflecting a higher-than-average voter engagement.
Voting process and incidents
The voting process thus far has proceeded without significant disruptions, aside from a notable incident in central Lisbon. Socialist Party candidate Miguel Coelho, who serves as the president of the city’s Santa Maria Maior district, reported an attack where he was pushed to the ground and assaulted by an individual who was encouraging onlookers to support the far-right Chega party. The Portuguese police are currently investigating this assault on the center-left candidate.
Political context and predictions
This snap election is taking place just two months after the government led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro collapsed due to the Spinumviva scandal, which raised questions about the integrity of the center-right politician. The scandal involved a data protection consultancy owned by Montenegro’s family, which catered to various companies with government contracts. Despite his denials of any unethical conduct and surviving several censure motions against his minority government, Montenegro ultimately resigned following a lost confidence vote in March.
Pre-election surveys indicate that the center-right coalition led by the Democratic Alliance has a slight edge over the center-left Socialist Party. However, similar to the previous elections, neither side is forecasted to achieve a governing majority in parliament. The Chega party is also anticipated to secure the third-largest share of votes once again. Montenegro has explicitly dismissed the possibility of forming a governing alliance with this ultranationalist group, casting doubt on the future governability of Portugal.
In the preceding year, Socialist Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos chose a path of constructive engagement, allowing his party to abstain from key votes, which facilitated Montenegro’s minority government in passing essential budgetary legislation. However, relations between the main political factions have deteriorated since the failed confidence vote in March, leaving uncertainty about whether the center-left will support the center-right’s governance in this election cycle.
If Montenegro’s government faces rejection from the parliament, the responsibility may fall on Santos to attempt to govern, although he is also likely to encounter resistance from center-right legislators, potentially resulting in a political stalemate for the country.