The death of Pope Francis at the age of 88 on Easter Monday has prompted the imminent gathering of a conclave to elect a new leader for the Catholic Church. This pivotal moment could either reinforce or challenge the reformist legacy of the late pontiff. The conclave is projected to commence two to three weeks following the pope’s funeral, with the College of Cardinals convening in the historic Sistine Chapel to embark on the confidential selection process for the next pope.
While any baptized male Roman Catholic is theoretically qualified for the papacy, tradition indicates that a candidate will likely emerge from the ranks of the cardinals. Predicting the outcome is notoriously tricky; for instance, Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio was not a frontrunner when he was elected Pope Francis in 2013 after just 24 hours and five rounds of voting.
The stakes and the landscape
The significance of this election cannot be overstated, as the next pope will inherit a Church grappling with profound divisions over pressing issues such as LGBTQ+ inclusion and clerical abuse. Additionally, the new pontiff must navigate a complex geopolitical climate, marked by territorial and cultural conflicts.
As speculation mounts regarding possible successors, several names are emerging as frontrunners:
Italian candidates gain traction
Could Italy reclaim the papacy? Of the 266 popes in history, 217 have been Italian, yet the last three have come from outside Italy. One of the most frequently mentioned candidates is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the 70-year-old Vatican Secretary of State and Francis’ deputy since 2013. Parolin is seen as a logical heir, given his close association with the late pope and his role in implementing his reforms.
Parolin has been instrumental in diplomatic efforts, notably in reestablishing relations with China and facilitating the appointment of Chinese bishops in collaboration with Beijing. However, critics describe him as overly bureaucratic, lacking the personal charisma and pastoral experience that defined Pope Francis. Perspectives on Parolin’s candidacy vary widely; some view him as a “Trojan horse” embodying either progressive or conservative tendencies.
Another Italian contender is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, who may appeal to cardinals nostalgic for an Italian leader. At 60, Pizzaballa possesses extensive experience in the Middle East and is recognized for his views on environmental protection and interfaith dialogue. His gentle demeanor and lack of public controversy may work in his favor, although concerns about his relative youth could pose a challenge.
As the College of Cardinals grapples with the question of leadership, they must also consider non-European candidates. Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines, former Archbishop of Manila, is another prominent name, known for his advocacy for social justice and opposition to the controversial policies during former President Duterte’s administration.
Additionally, the possibility of electing the first African pope has emerged, with Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana once again in discussions. Although Turkson has considerable experience, his previous controversial remarks may hinder his candidacy.
In light of Francis’ efforts to diversify the College of Cardinals by appointing more representatives from underrepresented regions, the dynamics of the election process have shifted. This could empower bishops from developing nations, leading to robust discussions during the conclave.
Conservatives and their contenders
Throughout his papacy, Francis faced strong opposition from the conservative faction within the Church, which has become increasingly radicalized, particularly in the United States. Cardinal Raymond Burke, a prominent conservative voice, has often criticized Francis’ approach. However, many view him as more of a symbolic leader than a viable papal candidate.
Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő is considered a more serious contender among conservatives and has been noted for his traditionalist views, which align with those seeking a course correction for the Church. However, the composition of the College of Cardinals, with 110 of the 138 eligible cardinals appointed by Francis, complicates the potential for a swift return to conservatism.
As the Church prepares for this historic conclave, the path toward electing a new pope remains uncertain, filled with complex considerations and shifting alliances.