Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been gradually dismantling democratic structures and suppressing dissent in Turkey. Amidst this backdrop, it appears that Erdoğan has strategically chosen this critical geopolitical moment to suppress the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the secular founder of the Republic of Turkey.
The recent actions against the Republican People’s Party (CHP), established by Atatürk, and the detention of its prominent Istanbul Mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, underscore Erdoğan’s intentions. İmamoğlu, a strong contender for the next presidential election, has become a focal point in Erdoğan’s quest to neutralize opposition and further entrench his autocratic rule.
Political climate and the implications of İmamoğlu’s arrest
As hundreds of police officers surrounded his residence last week, İmamoğlu reached out to his supporters via video message, stating,
“We are up against tyranny, but I will not be discouraged.”
His arrest followed a dubious revocation of his university diploma, a legal maneuver intended to disqualify him from running for office, as Turkish law mandates that presidential candidates must hold university degrees. Despite his formal removal from office, İmamoğlu is still expected to win his party’s primary, positioning him as Erdoğan’s main adversary in the impending election.
The timing of İmamoğlu’s arrest raises questions. Stripping him of his academic credentials alone would have sufficed to bar him from the electoral race, especially since the presidential elections are not scheduled until 2028, although speculation suggests they could occur sooner. This begs the question: why act against him now and initiate the arrest of 106 others, including members of the CHP?
Some analysts believe Erdoğan aimed to preemptively quash any momentum for İmamoğlu’s candidacy. Gönül Tol, author of “Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria,” posits that Erdoğan’s actions are influenced by international developments, suggesting he feels emboldened by a global shift towards autocracy. According to Tol,
“[U.S. President Donald] Trump’s anti-democratic actions at home have fueled a global climate where autocrats elsewhere feel empowered to further crush dissent.”
Autocratic trends and international dynamics
In the current political climate, Erdoğan is not alone. Other leaders, recognizing a change in the geopolitical atmosphere, seem keen to adopt more authoritarian practices. The relationship between Erdoğan and Trump has been characterized by mutual admiration, with both leaders exhibiting a disregard for democratic norms. With Trump’s recent hostile rhetoric against his political opponents, Erdoğan likely perceives little risk in further consolidating his power.
The rise of illiberal governance has inspired autocrats to adopt similar tactics, including the suppression of dissent, scapegoating migrants, and the curtailment of independent media. As Erdoğan’s government has restricted public gatherings and tightened social media access, it has also aligned with figures like Elon Musk, who recently suspended Turkish opposition accounts on his platform.
The narrative seems to shift towards a philosophy where power prevails, and leaders operate without the constraints of liberal democratic norms. This trend of strongman politics may ultimately lead to a competitive race among authoritarian leaders to assert their dominance. Recent gatherings, such as the Munich Security Summit, have highlighted the growing concern among those committed to liberal values, with discussions reflecting fears regarding the trajectory of global politics.
As Erdoğan capitalizes on this geopolitical moment, the implications for Turkey’s democracy and the broader region remain significant. With an unmistakable determination to redefine the political landscape, Erdoğan may believe he is poised to emerge victorious in this shifting historical narrative.