Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Saturday that Ukraine is prepared to facilitate the transit of natural gas from Azerbaijan to European markets. This statement was made during a press conference in Kyiv, where Zelenskyy discussed the arrangement with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, during their recent meetings.
Capacity and Infrastructure Utilization
Zelenskyy emphasized Azerbaijan’s substantial export capabilities, stating, “Azerbaijan has a large export capacity. The export capacity is 25 billion cubic meters.” He noted that Ukraine is ready to leverage its existing infrastructure to support European nations in need of gas, clearly specifying, “But not Russian gas.”
This development comes after Russian gas supplies through Ukraine were halted earlier this month, generating serious concerns for countries such as Slovakia and Hungary that continued to receive significant amounts of gas from Russia despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Addressing Energy Crisis in Moldova
During the press conference, Zelenskyy, alongside Moldovan President Maia Sandu, discussed urgent measures to tackle the energy crisis in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, which is backed by Russia. He stated, “We will not let the Russians profit. But will we let the Azerbaijanis earn? With pleasure. Will we help the Slovaks? With pleasure.” The Ukrainian leader highlighted the potential for swift contractual agreements to respond to the energy needs of Transnistria and neighboring countries.
Despite these optimistic assertions, some experts question Azerbaijan’s ability to deliver significant new gas volumes to Europe through Ukraine. Aura Sabadus, a gas markets expert at intelligence firm ICIS, observed, “Azerbaijan is trying to position itself as a major EU energy partner. But they don’t have the production and, at the moment, they’re punching above their weight.” It is suggested that any agreements with Azerbaijan may involve rebranding Russian supplies as Azerbaijani gas.
The backdrop of this strategic maneuvering is the expiration of a crucial transit agreement that allowed Russian gas to flow to the EU via Ukrainian pipelines, which is set to end by 2024. Six months prior to its expiration, a senior Azerbaijani official indicated that discussions were underway that might allow Azerbaijan to assume control over this contract.
Hungary and Slovakia have traditionally used this transit route to import substantial amounts of Russian gas, benefiting from lucrative fees associated with shipping these supplies. However, in December, Zelenskyy firmly rejected the idea of renewing this agreement, stating, “We’re not going to extend the transit of Russian gas. We won’t allow them to earn additional billions on our blood.”
The tension surrounding this issue is expected to intensify with an upcoming meeting among top EU diplomats to deliberate on the bloc’s foreign policy. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has threatened to veto the renewal of EU sanctions on Russia unless Kyiv concedes in the ongoing standoff, which could have significant implications for economic and energy policies in the region. “If the Ukrainians want help, for example … to sanction the Russians, then let them reopen the gas pipeline and allow the Central European countries, including Hungary, to import the gas we need through Ukraine,” Orbán declared on Friday.