BUDAPEST — A cloud of controversy looms over Hungary’s upcoming elections as speculation mounts regarding the possible release of an intimate video involving Péter Magyar, the challenger to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Conversations among voters often pivot to the unverified rumors surrounding a secretly recorded tape of Magyar, which has not yet surfaced but has already generated significant buzz.
In mid-February, journalists were alerted with messages containing a provocative image of a bedroom, captioned “coming soon.” This photo has rapidly circulated across social media platforms, fueling rumors of a potential smear campaign against Magyar. The opposition leader contends that his rivals might be orchestrating a malicious strategy, asserting that the footage could be “recorded with secret service equipment and possibly faked, in which my then-girlfriend and I are seen having intimate intercourse.”
Smear campaigns intensify as nomination deadline passes
Magyar, who leads the center-right Tisza party, has accused Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party of preparing for a toxic smear campaign as the deadline for candidate nominations has now passed. Political analysts anticipate that the campaign of disinformation and mudslinging will escalate now that nominations are closed, leaving any damaged candidates without the option to withdraw or be replaced.
As the specter of the rumored tape hangs over the campaign, questions arise regarding its potential impact on public perception, especially considering recent polls suggest that Fidesz trails Magyar’s party by about 9 percentage points. Péter Krekó, executive director of Political Capital, an independent policy research consultancy, commented, “We can’t be sure about its impact until we have the content. I would not dare to predict because it’s dependent on what’s on the tape.”
Historical context of scandal in Hungarian politics
Hungarian political history is not unfamiliar with scandals. In 2017, Zsolt Borkai, a Fidesz-affiliated mayor and former Olympian, faced a significant scandal after being implicated in a blog that exposed images of him at a group sex party. Despite the controversy, Borkai was narrowly re-elected two years later, although he ultimately resigned from his position.
Krekó noted that Magyar has adeptly engaged in preemptive communication, openly acknowledging his past consensual relationship, a move perceived as strategic to mitigate potential backlash. However, an anonymous opposition activist expressed uncertainty about the ramifications of the rumored tape, suggesting that Magyar’s popularity is not particularly strong. “There’s already little enthusiasm for him personally,” the activist stated. “For many on the left and center of the political spectrum, Magyar and Tisza are just useful vehicles to use to get rid of Orbán.”
This perspective indicates that a potential victory for Tisza may represent a broader anti-Orbán coalition rather than a rallying support for Magyar himself, drawing parallels with Labour’s anticipated win in the 2024 UK elections, which focuses more on a desire for change than on public admiration for the party leader.
In addition to internal controversies, there are growing concerns regarding external influences. András Rácz, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, has warned of potential Russian interference in the electoral process. While recent months have seen limited activity, Rácz anticipates a surge in Russian disinformation efforts aimed at bolstering Orbán’s regime as the elections approach.
“Orbán’s government has been the best asset Russia has ever had in the EU and NATO,” Rácz stated, underlining the Kremlin’s vested interest in maintaining the current power structure in Hungary. Szabolcs Panyi, an award-winning journalist for Direkt36, echoes these sentiments, revealing that a team of Kremlin-affiliated political strategists is reportedly set to influence the election, with oversight from Sergei Kiriyenko, a high-ranking official in the Russian government.
The efficacy of such foreign interventions remains uncertain. Past attempts, such as Russia’s influence campaign in Moldova, failed to sway the parliamentary elections in favor of pro-Russian factions. However, the difference in response strategies between the two countries raises questions about Hungary’s ability to fend off similar tactics.