Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of the acclaimed book, Goodbye Globalization, is set to release her latest work, The Undersea War, later this year. As international attention focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, another significant maritime situation is unfolding in Europe.
This conflict involves geopolitics and a smaller body of water, where ships are currently immobilized. In a strategic effort to disrupt Moscow’s rule-defying shadow fleet, Ukraine has significantly impacted Russian ports, resulting in a profound maritime traffic jam in the Gulf of Finland.
Ukraine’s strategic strikes on Russian ports
On April 7, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that they had successfully targeted the Ust-Luga oil terminal, a vital port located on Russia’s Gulf of Finland coast. They stated,
“This facility is an important element of Russia’s petroleum export infrastructure, revenues from which are used to sustain armed aggression against Ukraine.”
This strike is part of a broader Ukraine strategy aimed at crippling Russia’s oil export capabilities, which serves as a primary revenue source for their military operations.
Just two days prior to the attack on Ust-Luga, Ukraine also targeted the Primorsk port. These ports are crucial in the oil export chain, with Ust-Luga accounting for 20 percent and Primorsk for 22 percent of Russia’s oil exports, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank.
Kyiv’s military strategy is grounded in the belief that by disrupting Moscow’s oil exports, they can hinder its ability to finance ongoing military aggression. To this end, Ukraine’s forces have also engaged Russian shadow tankers that operate outside traditional maritime regulations.
Impact of the maritime traffic jam
The Ukrainian military has vowed to continue its offensive against key Russian facilities until all forms of aggression against Ukraine cease. Following the April 7 strike, there were days when no vessels could dock at Ust-Luga or Primorsk, severely restricting port activity. For instance, on April 10, only two ships managed to dock at Primorsk, with no additional arrivals scheduled until April 27. Ust-Luga saw some more activity, but overall, vessel traffic remains far below normal levels.
The aftermath of these military actions has resulted in an unusual maritime congestion in the Gulf of Finland, with numerous ships, primarily tankers, now anchored and immobilized. The waiting vessels, particularly those associated with Russian oil, are unable to operate as they fear being detained at other ports.
The situation is particularly noteworthy as it has resulted in around 40 vessels anchored within Estonia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), with additional ships stranded in Finland’s waters. This has created a striking image of sanctioned and often aging Russian-affiliated ships lingering along Europe’s Baltic coast, all while Russian ports remain incapacitated.
Regina Palandi-Paju, Estonia’s deputy director for National Security and Defense Coordination, noted,
“From the security perspective, it is better to keep the ships in the anchorage area than allow them to drift around.”
However, she acknowledged the environmental risks associated with the situation, stating that any potential spills from these vessels would require clean-up efforts from Estonia and Finland.
As the wait for repairs at Ust-Luga and Primorsk continues, both Finland and Estonia are left to manage the implications of this maritime standstill. The international community remains vigilant, hoping that these vessels will not exploit the current circumstances, causing further complications.
This scenario exemplifies the ongoing challenges in upholding international maritime law and order. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violating the U.N. Charter, its reliance on oil exports to fund its military actions has led to a creative yet unconventional response from Ukraine. The presence of a makeshift armada in the waters surrounding Finland and Estonia serves as a stark reminder of the complexities of today’s geopolitical landscape.
Finland and Estonia deserve recognition for their commitment to maintaining maritime regulations during these turbulent times. The hope remains that their adherence to the rule of law will not lead to unforeseen consequences in the future.