KYIV — Following a significant political shift in Budapest, Ukraine has expressed cautious optimism, though this sentiment may be short-lived. With Péter Magyar’s decisive victory over Viktor Orbán in the recent Hungarian national election, Ukrainian officials understand that the path to improved relations between the two nations is fraught with challenges.
A shift in dynamics
Magyar’s rise to power is viewed in Kyiv as a setback for Moscow, which had long supported Orbán. This change has sparked hopes that Hungary might finally unblock the €90 billion in EU funds that have been stalled due to previous political tensions. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha remarked,
“The choice of the Hungarians marked the defeat of the policy of blackmail and anti-Ukrainian propaganda.”
However, he tempered expectations, emphasizing the need for “painstaking, pragmatic and calm work ahead to find common ground, restore mutual respect and implement common pragmatic interests.”
What lies ahead for Ukraine and Hungary?
Unlike his predecessor, Magyar has not demonstrated anti-Ukrainian sentiments. In fact, he has actively supported humanitarian relief efforts for Kyiv since the onset of Russia’s invasion in 2022, labeling Russia as the aggressor. He told reporters,
“Everyone in Hungary knows that Ukraine is the victim in this war.”
Despite this, he has voiced opposition to expediting Ukraine’s EU accession process and indicated that Hungary would not contribute to the EU’s financial aid to Kyiv.
Relations between Orbán and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were notably strained, with Orbán accusing Zelenskyy of attempting to pull Hungary into the conflict with Russia. This historical context casts a shadow over future interactions, although Magyar’s election presents an opportunity to mend ties. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign relations committee, noted that Magyar’s victory signifies “a strategic defeat for the Kremlin, which was counting on the creation of an anti-Ukrainian coalition in the EU led by Orbán.”
Nevertheless, there are hurdles to overcome. Magyar has signaled a willingness to allow the unblocking of the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine, previously stalled by Orbán. However, complications arise with the Druzhba pipeline, which has been a flashpoint in discussions regarding energy supplies. Although Kyiv claims the pipeline was damaged by a Russian strike, Orbán has contended that it remains operational, accusing Zelenskyy of using the situation to exert pressure on Hungary. While Zelenskyy has assured Brussels that repairs will be made if funding is restored, the prospect of resuming Russian oil supplies remains contentious.
Furthermore, Magyar has been noncommittal about supporting a swift Ukrainian accession to the EU, citing adherence to the bloc’s criteria. Ukraine, on the other hand, views rapid accession as a necessary security measure given the ongoing conflict and calls for a concrete timeline from Brussels. Magyar has described the issue as “academic” while Ukraine is still at war, suggesting that any decision might ultimately be put to a referendum.
Lastly, there is the matter of recovering €35 million and 9 kilograms of gold that Hungarian authorities seized from a van belonging to Ukraine’s state-owned Oshchadbank earlier this year. Despite Budapest’s claims of thwarting a money laundering operation, Kyiv has denied any wrongdoing. Yurii Katsion, chairman of the Oshchadbank board, expressed hope that the recent political developments could facilitate the return of these funds.
As Ukraine navigates this delicate landscape, the impact of Magyar’s leadership on future relations with Hungary remains to be seen, with both challenges and opportunities on the horizon.