Mikhail Khodorkovsky, founder of the New Eurasian Strategies Centre and co-founder of the Russian Antiwar Committee, presents a critical perspective on the evolving dynamics between Russia and China. Despite the two nations’ leaders proclaiming an unlimited partnership, the reality reveals a more complex and constrained relationship.
Contrasting Goals of Russia and China
The relationship between President Vladimir Putin’s Russia and China is marked by a marriage of convenience, primarily constrained by their differing objectives. While Putin aims to dismantle the remnants of the post-Cold War international order and reshape it according to Moscow’s vision, China seeks a stable environment to gradually establish a Sino-centric global system. This involves maintaining a semblance of stability and a rules-based order.
Putin finds himself in a precarious position, aware that his window of opportunity to capitalize on divisions within what he terms the “Collective West” is limited. His vulnerabilities, however, are becoming increasingly evident. U.S. interventions in regions like Venezuela, alongside Russia’s hesitance to support Iran and the Assad regime’s diminishing power in Syria, illustrate a pattern of an overstretched and weakening Russia. This decline threatens Russia’s reliability among its allies in the Global South.
The Implications of U.S.-China Relations
Interestingly, while former U.S. President Donald Trump often portrayed Russia and China as a combined threat, the reality is that Washington is more focused on navigating its relationship with Beijing. The meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Seoul in 2025 highlighted a strategic shift—one that seeks to dissociate the “Russia question” from the “China question.” This separation opens avenues for economic cooperation and power politics between the U.S. and China, much to the Kremlin’s concern.
“Without China, Putin’s war machine would have likely ground to a halt in 12 months or even less.”
The implications of a U.S.-China rapprochement are significant for Russia. Should this relationship evolve, Putin’s Russia risks being relegated to a secondary role on the global stage, severely diminishing its leverage, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Currently, Russia’s dependence on China for military supplies and trade is unprecedented; without this support, the Kremlin’s military efforts would likely face dire consequences.
Moscow’s response to the Trump-Xi meeting was predictably aggressive, with Kremlin-aligned media emphasizing the catastrophic potential of Russia’s new nuclear-capable missiles. This reaction indicates a palpable unease within the Kremlin regarding changing geopolitical alliances.
While the China-Russia partnership has notably strengthened since 2022, with China refraining from curbing Putin’s military aggression, the future of this alliance hinges on their mutual benefits in countering U.S. influence. The initial U.S. strategy of attempting to separate Moscow from Beijing has proven ineffective, as Trump praised his recent interactions with Xi and accepted an invitation to China, signaling a pragmatic approach that aligns more closely with Xi’s diplomatic style.
Both leaders appear inclined to avoid military conflict; Trump has committed to reducing America’s military engagements, while Xi, focusing on Taiwan, is wary of jeopardizing the Chinese economy through war. This contrasts sharply with Putin’s aggressive posturing, which he views as essential to maintaining his grip on power.
As the discourse surrounding Trump stepping back from Ukraine has quieted, it is evident that he remains invested in achieving a peace settlement. Acknowledging Beijing’s leverage over Moscow may provide the best opportunity for a resolution. The pertinent question now lies in whether the so-called “no limits” partnership with Putin continues to serve China’s interests, or if Beijing’s focus would be better aligned with establishing a pragmatic détente with the U.S. and Europe.
With Europe cautiously observing Washington, China finds itself in a position to forge a long-term accommodation with the continent. This scenario presents Europe with the potential to influence China to distance itself from its unpredictable ally, thereby restraining the Kremlin’s aggressive ambitions in Europe.