Rumen Radev, the former president of Bulgaria who is aligned with Russia, is poised for a significant electoral victory in the upcoming election this Sunday. However, to establish a governing majority, he may need to collaborate with at least one other political party.
Projected election outcomes
Early projections indicate that Radev’s newly formed Progressive Bulgaria movement is expected to secure approximately 40 percent of the total votes, as reported by television broadcasts following the closure of polls. This figure represents more than double the support of any competing parties.
The possibility of Radev achieving an outright majority will largely depend on the performance of smaller parties, which must surpass the 4 percent threshold to gain seats in parliament. Should he require alliances for governance, a pivotal question will be whether he opts to partner with pro-European liberal reformists, who are projected to obtain around 14 percent, or align himself with the Socialist Party (estimated at about 4 percent) and nationalists (around 5 percent), a coalition that could potentially form a pro-Moscow bloc.
“I am ready to go with different options so Bulgaria can have a functional and stable government,” he stated after casting his vote.
Political challenges and aspirations
This election marks the eighth for Bulgaria within five years, a period characterized by ongoing political turmoil and unstable coalitions. The 62-year-old Radev, who has a background as a former air force commander, is striving to unify various factions into a new political party to alleviate the current political deadlock.
Radev has built his political identity by positioning himself as a challenger to what he describes as the country’s oligarchic “mafia state.” Nonetheless, critics argue that his policies frequently mirror those of the Kremlin, especially regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He has advocated for Ukraine to pursue peace negotiations, opposed the supply of arms to Kyiv, and described his view that Crimea is “Russian” as a reflection of strategic realities. Furthermore, he has voiced skepticism about Bulgaria’s recent adoption of the euro, claiming it has contributed to rising inflation.
Following his vote on Sunday morning, Radev articulated that the election represents a chance to “take back” Bulgaria from oligarchs. He also emphasized the need for a relationship of “mutual respect” with Russia, recalling its role in liberating Bulgaria from Ottoman rule in 1878.
While his positions have helped him garner support domestically, Radev has generally refrained from directly confronting Western nations, maintaining a level of alignment with European mainstream policies during European Council meetings in Brussels. European funding remains essential for Bulgaria, the poorest member of the EU, and Bulgarian leaders have historically avoided provocative actions akin to those of outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
According to a senior EU diplomat, Radev does not pose the same level of disruption as Orbán. The diplomat noted that Radev operates in a “much different league” regarding his capability and willingness to challenge established policies.
In the lead-up to the election, Radev addressed accusations of pro-Russian sentiment, stating, “I don’t see what kind of pro-Russian position I have. I have completely pro-Bulgarian positions, I have pro-European positions.” He has also ruled out forming coalitions with Bulgaria’s two most prominent political figures—former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov of the GERB party and Delyan Peevski, leader of the DPS-New Beginning party—alleging that they represent the pinnacle of the “oligarchic pyramid” controlling the mafia state.
Assen Vassilev, who leads the reformist We Continue the Change party, hinted at possible collaboration with Radev, prioritizing judicial reform in their political agenda. He remarked, “The most important thing … to say this evening is that Bulgarian citizens turned out, voted and left GERB and DPS in the past.”
This article is being updated.