Romanians recently participated in a presidential election rerun, occurring six months after an initial attempt that ended in confusion and controversy. Current exit polls indicate that right-wing candidate George Simion has taken the lead, garnering approximately 30% of the votes. He is followed by two centrist candidates: Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and Crin Antonescu, a liberal representing the governing Social-Democrat and National Liberal coalition.
The election on November 24 was initially won by radical outsider Calin Georgescu, who has mystical inclinations; however, that outcome was annulled due to allegations of campaign fraud and claims of Russian interference. With no candidate expected to secure over 50% of the vote in this rerun, a run-off between the top two candidates is anticipated on May 18.
Simion’s Response and International Implications
After the polls closed, Simion expressed gratitude to his voters in a recorded message, stating, “It was an act of courage, trust and solidarity.” His campaign has gained attention not just locally but also internationally. In February, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance criticized Romania for the annulment of the initial polls, sending ripples through a political landscape that has heavily relied on its relationship with the United States. Georgescu has been barred from participating in the rerun election.
Simion further emphasized the broader significance of this election on social media, declaring, “This election is not about one candidate or another, but about every Romanian who has been lied to, ignored, humiliated, and still has the strength to believe and defend our identity and rights.” The results are being watched closely by European capitals, Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, as Romania plays a pivotal role as a transit route for weapons and ammunition heading to Ukraine.
Impact of Political Dynamics and Public Sentiment
Romania hosts a U.S. missile defense shield at Deveselu and operates three major airbases for NATO’s air policing missions near its borders with Ukraine and Moldova, extending over the Black Sea. Furthermore, Ukraine relies on Romania for 70% of its grain exports, traversing Romanian territorial waters toward Istanbul. The Romanian navy is responsible for demining these waters, while the Romanian air force trains Ukrainian pilots to operate F-16s. Recent changes in U.S. policy, including the abrupt cancellation of a visa-waiver agreement just before the election, have raised concerns among Romanian security experts about future support for Ukraine under a potential Simion presidency.
“Forget about any more help to Ukraine if Simion becomes president,” warns George Scutaru, a security expert at the New Strategy Center in Bucharest.
Public discontent regarding Romania’s financial assistance for Ukrainian refugees has featured prominently in Simion’s campaign, although he asserts he does not align himself with pro-Russian sentiments.
On a warm afternoon in May, the gardens of Cotroceni Palace, the presidential residence in west Bucharest, are bustling with visitors. Interim President Ilie Bolojan’s decision to open the palace to the public has received widespread acclaim. With pathways adorned with white and purple irises beneath blooming horse chestnut trees, a military band performs amidst vibrant flowerbeds. This historic palace, originally a monastery from the 17th century, later became the residence of the Romanian royal family in the 19th century.
Many voters have mixed feelings about Simion’s potential presidency. Ionut, a satirical writer who previously voted for Simion out of frustration over delays in Romania’s accession to the Schengen free-travel area, reflects on the changes since joining the Schengen land borders on January 1. Following the resignation of President Klaus Iohannis, Ionut notes, “Romanians are less angry now.” He has now decided to support Nicusor Dan, though he remains undecided.
Ana, a management consultant visiting the palace gardens with her family, also favors Nicusor Dan, stating, “I want to vote for both continuity and change. Continuity in Romania’s relationship with Europe, but change in terms of corruption. We young people don’t relate to the old parties anymore.” This sentiment mirrors aspects of Simion’s platform as well.
Additionally, many Romanians living abroad, totaling about a million registered voters, have already cast their ballots, primarily in countries like Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK. Though often overlooked in opinion polls, their votes could significantly influence the final election outcome.