Israeli forces have remained stationed in southern Lebanon beyond the Sunday deadline for their withdrawal, citing incomplete implementation of a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. The 60-day truce, negotiated by the United States and France, aimed to conclude 14 months of conflict by mandating the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the removal of Hezbollah fighters and their arsenal from the region.
In concert with this agreement, Lebanon plans to deploy thousands of its own soldiers to areas where Hezbollah has long held sway. However, as the deadline lapsed, it remains uncertain regarding the number of Israeli soldiers still in Lebanon and their future intentions.
Casualties and rising tensions
As residents attempted to return home, despite warnings from both Lebanese and Israeli military forces, the Lebanese health ministry reported three fatalities and 44 injuries due to Israeli military actions. No immediate response was forthcoming from Israeli officials.
This situation represents a significant challenge for Lebanon’s newly elected president, Joseph Aoun, who is striving for stability in a nation beleaguered by ongoing crises. In a statement made on Sunday, Aoun asserted that Lebanon’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable,” emphasizing that he was closely monitoring the circumstances surrounding the ceasefire.
Hezbollah’s reaction and internal pressures
The conflict escalated dramatically last September, leading to widespread Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon, the assassination of key Hezbollah leaders, and a ground invasion into southern Lebanon. This conflict resulted in approximately 4,000 Lebanese casualties, many of whom were civilians, and displaced over 1.2 million people.
Israeli Prime Minister’s office remarked that the troop withdrawal was contingent upon the Lebanese army’s effective deployment in southern Lebanon and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometers from the unofficial border demarcation known as the Blue Line. The statement noted, “Since the ceasefire agreement has yet to be fully enforced by the Lebanese state, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the US.”
In response, the Lebanese army acknowledged the ongoing deployment efforts along the border but cited “delays in some stages due to the Israeli enemy’s procrastination in withdrawing, complicating the army’s deployment mission.” A Western diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that Israel has requested additional time to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure, proposing a 30-day extension for the withdrawal.
Hezbollah has remained silent regarding its potential response to the continued Israeli troop presence, having previously warned that any failure to adhere to the deadline would be viewed as a “blatant violation of the agreement, an infringement on Lebanese sovereignty, and an entry into a new phase of occupation.” This ambiguity reflects the precarious position of Hezbollah, which, despite suffering significant losses during the conflict, still holds substantial influence among Shia Muslims in Lebanon.
The ceasefire has effectively halted hostilities that had caused considerable destruction and loss, thereby allowing many residents to return to their homes. However, should Hezbollah choose to resume its military actions, it may face significant opposition from critics who accuse the group of jeopardizing Lebanon’s interests, as well as potential dissent from within its own supporter base.
President Aoun has pledged to undertake significant reforms aimed at restoring Lebanese institutions long afflicted by corruption, rejuvenating the ailing economy, and addressing the monopoly on weapon possession, which would challenge Hezbollah’s military dominance. The willingness and capability of the Lebanese army to confront Hezbollah remains uncertain, as any actions against the group could ignite internal conflict.
Israel’s strategic objective in its military engagement with Hezbollah centers around facilitating the return of approximately 60,000 displaced residents to northern Lebanese communities affected by the group’s operations, while also seeking to diminish Hezbollah’s presence along the border. This escalation coincided with Hezbollah’s campaign launched in solidarity with the Palestinian cause following the Hamas attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.