In a recent interview, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed a hopeful outlook regarding the long-standing relationship with China, a nation historically viewed as a rival. He noted that the situation along the contentious India-China border has improved and emphasized the importance of enhancing bilateral relations.
These remarks come in the wake of heightened tensions following a violent clash in northern Ladakh in 2020, marking the deadliest conflict between the two nations since the 1962 war. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, acknowledged Modi’s sentiments, stating,
“the two countries should be partners that contribute to each other’s success”
.
Positive developments amidst ongoing challenges
While Modi’s call for a closer partnership may seem optimistic, it reflects ongoing improvements in the bilateral relationship. However, significant obstacles persist that must be addressed for a genuine rapprochement to occur. Despite the friction, there are numerous areas of cooperation; bilateral trade has remained strong, and China continues to be India’s largest trading partner. The two countries collaborate in various multilateral settings, including BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and share common goals in combating international terrorism and promoting alternative economic frameworks.
Following the Ladakh incident, military dialogues have continued, leading to agreements such as the resumption of border patrols in October. Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met during the BRICS summit in Russia last year, where they reaffirmed their commitment to further collaboration. In January, the two nations announced the reinstatement of direct flight services.
Key factors influencing future relations
Despite these positive indicators, the India-China relationship is fraught with complexities. Both countries maintain strong security alliances with their respective rivals—India with the United States and China with Pakistan. China’s stance on Indian policies in the disputed Kashmir region, along with its opposition to India’s ambitions for a greater role in global governance, exacerbate tensions. Furthermore, China’s significant naval presence in the Indian Ocean and its military base within India’s maritime domain contribute to apprehensions in New Delhi.
India’s growing ties with Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province, and its support for the Dalai Lama, a figure China views as a separatist threat, further complicate matters. Additionally, India is exploring military sales to Southeast Asian nations that could deter Chinese threats in the South China Sea, a move China perceives as a strategic countermeasure.
Looking ahead, several indicators will shed light on the trajectory of India-China relations. One critical aspect is the ongoing discussions regarding disputed territories, with approximately 50,000 square miles of the 2,100-mile border still in contention. The situation at the border is a crucial gauge of overall relations; the trust fractured by the Ladakh clash can only be rebuilt through continued dialogue and confidence-building initiatives.
High-level engagements between Modi and Xi are also vital. Their personal diplomacy could enhance recent progress, with potential encounters at upcoming summits such as BRICS in July, G20 in November, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization later in the year. Another significant signpost is the potential for increased Chinese investment in India, which could alleviate the $85 billion trade deficit and stimulate key industries, fostering stronger economic ties.
Regional dynamics are equally important. Recently, new leadership in India’s neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka has shown a pro-China inclination, yet these nations have balanced their relations rather than aligning solely with Beijing. This balance may mitigate Delhi’s concerns about Chinese influence in the region. Furthermore, if China reduces its partnership with India’s ally Russia—potentially following the resolution of the Ukraine conflict—this could create opportunities for improved relations.
The geopolitical landscape is also influenced by the United States. Former President Donald Trump’s approach, which indicated a willingness to ease tensions with China, may lead India to strengthen its ties with Beijing if it perceives a waning commitment from Washington. The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. could further motivate India to enhance its economic cooperation with China.
As the two largest countries in Asia, India and China view themselves as prominent civilization states. While their relationship is inherently competitive, the recent strides towards collaboration, alongside the prospects for further bilateral advancements, may foster a more stable dynamic—ensuring Modi’s calls for cooperation resonate beyond mere rhetoric.