The political landscape in Portugal has been thrown into disarray following a recent confidence vote that resulted in the ousting of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. The vote, held in the parliament, saw a decisive outcome with 142 MPs voting against Montenegro’s right-of-centre minority government, while only 88 supported him, leaving no room for abstentions. This marks a significant moment for the country, leading to its third general election in less than three years.
President’s Response and Future Elections
Despite not being constitutionally required to dissolve the assembly, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has indicated that he will proceed with fresh elections if the government failed to secure confidence. Following the recent vote, it is anticipated that these elections could take place as early as May.
Controversies Surrounding the Prime Minister
The vote of confidence was initiated by Montenegro’s own government, triggered by growing scrutiny from the opposition Socialists, who proposed a parliamentary inquiry into Montenegro’s business dealings. A particular focus has been on his company, Spinumviva, which continued to receive significant payments from clients even after he ascended to leadership of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and transferred ownership of the firm to his wife and sons. The legality of this transfer has been called into question, especially considering the couple’s joint asset arrangement. They have since appointed their sons as sole owners of the company.
Concerns persist regarding the sources of Spinumviva’s income, which reportedly included a monthly sum of €4,500 from the hotel and casino operator Solverde, currently undergoing a review of its gambling concession. Additionally, Montenegro has withheld the identities of other clients and the specific services offered by the firm. The prime minister, a qualified lawyer, claims that Spinumviva provides consultancy regarding data privacy laws, outsourcing work as needed. Yet, there are questions about whether the company is engaging in activities that are legally restricted to licensed lawyers, prompting an investigation by the Bar Association.
In a bid to demonstrate governmental activity amidst the crisis, Montenegro’s cabinet recently approved a range of spending measures. However, this situation could potentially favor the far-right Chega party, which is the third-largest in parliament. Chega has been vocal in its critiques of political corruption, particularly in light of the resignation of former Socialist Prime Minister António Costa, who is now president of the European Council and has been linked to a criminal inquiry regarding government contracts, although he has not been formally implicated.
Interestingly, Chega has recently faced its own challenges, with three of its MPs embroiled in legal controversies, including theft allegations at Lisbon airport. Until recently, Montenegro’s coalition with the conservative People’s Party had maintained a lead over the Socialists in public opinion polls, narrowly winning the 2024 general election a year prior. However, the balance appears to have shifted, with the Socialists, under the leadership of Pedro Nuno Santos, gaining ground.
Amidst the uncertainties, none of the major political factions seem eager to call for snap elections, largely due to concerns about voter apathy towards another election cycle so soon after a newly elected government took office. The geopolitical climate also plays a role in the reluctance for immediate elections. Nonetheless, the possibility of elections in May appears increasingly likely, as Montenegro opts to appeal to public sentiment rather than comply with an inquiry, a move that has drawn criticism from opposition leaders, who have branded it as “cowardly.” Notably, Santos has vowed not to support any government confidence motions, emphasizing the shifting tides in Portuguese politics.