The recent United Nations climate summit held in the United Arab Emirates in 2023 was hailed as a pivotal moment in the global climate movement, as it emphasized the need to “transition away from fossil fuels.” However, only a year later, concerns are mounting that this international commitment is losing momentum. The acceleration of clean energy initiatives has begun to stall, while fossil fuel consumption continues to increase. Central to this shift is US President Donald Trump’s push for a fossil fuel-centric energy policy, which is reverberating across various countries and energy sectors.
Trump’s slogan “drill, baby, drill” reflects his administration’s strategy to enhance fossil fuel extraction and abandon clean energy initiatives. This stance has already prompted reactions from nations like Indonesia, which is contemplating a similar approach following the US’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.
Global implications of US energy policy
Hashim Djojohadikusumo, Indonesia’s special envoy for climate change and energy, articulated this sentiment, questioning, “If the United States does not want to comply with the international agreement, why should a country like Indonesia comply with it?” As a country consistently ranking among the top ten carbon emitters, Indonesia produces three tons of carbon per person annually, compared to the US’s 13 tons. Djojohadikusumo raised concerns about the perceived inequity of international climate expectations, stating, “Yet we are the ones being told to close our power plants… So, where is the sense of justice here?”
Nithi Nesadurai, a director at Climate Action Network Southeast Asia, expressed alarm at the implications of the US’s fossil fuel production increase, highlighting that it provides an easy justification for other nations to ramp up their own fossil fuel activities.
In South Africa, which is Africa’s largest economy and a significant carbon emitter, the implementation of an $8.5 billion transition project from coal has encountered delays. Wikus Kruger, director of the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town, noted that the decommissioning of outdated coal-fired stations might face further postponements, despite ongoing growth in the clean energy sector.
Shift in energy priorities among global players
Argentina’s recent withdrawal of negotiators from the COP29 climate meeting in Baku shortly after Trump’s election marked a significant shift in its stance toward climate agreements. The Argentine government has indicated intentions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, echoing Trump’s approach. Enrique Viale, president of the Argentine Association of Environmental Lawyers, remarked, “We now expect our oil and gas production to go up” and alluded to the new administration’s dismissal of environmentalism as part of a ‘woke agenda.’
Meanwhile, energy companies are responding to the changing landscape. Equinor has announced plans to reduce its investment in renewable energy by half over the next two years while increasing oil and gas production. BP is anticipated to make similar announcements, reflecting a broader trend among major oil firms.
Trump’s commitment to export American energy globally is drawing interest from potential international buyers. Following talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump, the US has agreed to significantly bolster its oil and gas supply to India. Additionally, South Korea and Japan have expressed intentions to increase their procurement of American fossil fuels, with South Korea aiming to enhance energy security and reduce its trade surplus with the US.
Lorne Stockman, research director at Oil Change International, expressed concern over the potential repercussions of the US’s fossil fuel export strategy, stating, “There is certainly a threat that if the US seeks to either flood markets with cheap fossil fuels, or bully countries into buying more of its fossil fuels, or both, the global energy transition might be slowed.”
Scientists warn that to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, new fossil fuel extraction must cease, and carbon emissions need to decrease by approximately 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels. David Brown, director of energy transition practice at Wood Mackenzie, emphasized that the economic dynamics of energy supply are critical for driving decarbonization efforts.
Despite global clean energy investments surpassing $2 trillion last year, growth rates have tapered in recent times, as many banks continue to finance fossil fuel projects, complicating the path toward a more sustainable energy future.