Brent Dmitruk has gained a significant following on social media, where he claims to be an earthquake predictor. In mid-October, he alerted his audience that an earthquake was imminent near the westernmost point of California, just south of the coastal city of Eureka. His prediction gained attention when a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck the same area two months later, triggering tsunami warnings for millions and further increasing his online visibility.
“So to people who dismiss what I do, how can you argue it’s just a coincidence? It requires serious skill to figure out where earthquakes will go,” he asserted on New Year’s Eve. Yet, experts in the field emphasize a critical point: earthquakes cannot be predicted with accuracy.
The unpredictability of earthquakes
For those residing along the west coast of North America, the fear of a devastating earthquake looms large. The prospect of “the big one” striking at any moment undeniably influences the daily lives of millions. Lucy Jones, a veteran seismologist and former researcher with the US Geological Survey (USGS), stresses that the human instinct to impose patterns on chaotic events is a natural response to fear. However, she cautions, “It doesn’t have any predictive power, though.”
According to the USGS, approximately 100,000 earthquakes are registered globally each year. The Eureka region, located 270 miles north of San Francisco, has experienced over 700 quakes in just the last year, including more than ten in the past week. This part of California is known for its seismic activity, primarily due to the convergence of three tectonic plates at the Mendocino Triple Junction.
Understanding seismic activity
Seismic activity in this area is a result of the stress that builds up as tectonic plates shift. When that stress is released, earthquakes occur. While predicting the occurrence of an earthquake in this seismically active zone may seem plausible, Jones points out that accurately forecasting a significant quake remains elusive. She explains that an earthquake’s magnitude can only be understood as it unfolds, likening it to the tearing of paper—once the rip begins, it continues until interrupted by some force.
The USGS can assess the probability of earthquakes in certain regions over specified time frames, yet they clarify that precise predictions are not currently possible. Historical data indicate that major earthquakes, often referred to as “the big one,” occur with some regularity, particularly in the Cascadia subduction zone, which experiences major slips every 300 to 500 years, potentially resulting in catastrophic tsunamis.
Despite Dmitruk’s recent claims, his track record of predictions raises concerns. He previously forecasted an enormous 10.3 magnitude earthquake targeting areas in Southwest Alaska and off the coast of New Zealand, a prediction he maintains despite lacking any scientific background. “I don’t believe it’s just by chance,” he stated.
“Random distributions can look like they have patterns, we see constellations in the stars,” Jones explains. “A lot of people are really afraid of earthquakes, and the way to deal with it is to predict [when] it’s going to happen.”
Experts remind the public that while specific predictions are impossible, preparedness is key. Every year, on the third Thursday in October, millions of Americans participate in the Great ShakeOut, the world’s largest earthquake drill. This initiative, created in collaboration with the Southern California Earthquake Center, aims to educate participants on the proper safety measures to take during an earthquake.
During the drill, individuals practice the Drop, Cover, and Hold On technique: dropping to their knees, seeking shelter under sturdy furniture, and holding their position for a minute. This practice has spread beyond California, reaching other earthquake-prone states and even international participants. In coastal areas, residents are also advised to move to higher ground post-quake to avoid potential tsunamis.
In addition to these drills, West Coast residents have access to the ShakeAlert system, which detects pressure waves generated by earthquakes. Although it cannot predict future seismic events, it provides critical seconds of warning that could save lives—representing the most advanced approach to earthquake prediction available today.