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A wonk’s guide to the Swedish EU presidency policy agenda

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A wonk’s guide to the Swedish EU presidency policy agenda

Following COVID and the war in Ukraine, the EU’s legislative timetable is severely backed up.

Illustrations by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

Sweden’s policy smorgasbord is already groaning with some chewy (and even unpalatable) items — but the Commission keeps adding more to its plate.

By this point in a five-year EU election cycle, the vast majority of new policy proposals have already arrived from the EU executive branch, and are already on their legislative journey. But as Sweden takes over the rotating Council presidency with a year-and-a-half left until the next European election, that’s not the case.

With massive official bandwith having been taken up first by COVID and then by the war in Ukraine, the legislative timetable looks severely backed up, with some major policy packages yet to emerge from the Berlaymont. To have any hope of getting the remaining files through before the 2024 election, the Swedes will have to go some — or risk leaving an impossibly large pile of unfinished business for Spain and Belgium to deal with.


READ MORE ON THE SWEDISH PRESIDENCY OF THE EU:

1. Liberal Sweden put to the test as transatlantic trade war looms

2. The Swedes Europe needs to know

3. Brussels fears Swedish far right aims to thwart EU law-making program

4. Sweden to EU: Hands off our forests


As with all presidencies, Sweden promises to be an honest broker, dealing without fear or favor with the issues at hand. But like all presidencies, they have their priorities (and files they’d rather lose in the long grass.) The presence of the far-right Sweden Democrats in the new coalition government will also have an impact on how they approach their Council steering role.

Here’s a rundown of what is likely to make progress under Sweden’s watch:

Asylum reform

connecting EU countries

Transport

cars

health data

medicines industry

trade

online safety

media freedom

forests

green economy

farming

supply chains

brexit

artificial intelligence

energy

chips

gig workers

healthy food

fiscal rules

eu budget

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Supporting Ukraine

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

Why it matters: As Sweden prepares to take over the reins at the Council, one geopolitical issue is set to dominate its six-month stint at the helm: Ukraine. The war will continue to be the backdrop to EU decision-making on everything from foreign and security policy to energy and agriculture. “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will be on top of our presidency agenda,” Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billström told the FT in November. “We are ready to contribute as much political, financial, military, and humanitarian support as possible to Ukraine as long as necessary,”

State of play: Though technically the European External Action Service, and its head Josep Borrell, takes the lead on foreign policy issues — chairing all-important Foreign Affairs Councils — the Swedish presidency will play a key role. In particular, Sweden will be tasked with forging agreement on any future sanctions packages against Russia (the European Commission has confirmed that preparations for a ninth sanctions package are underway). Any further moves on energy measures, such as price controls or common energy procurement, will also test Council unity.

EU fault lines: With the economic pain from the war deepening, agreements will be harder to find. Poland and the Baltics are pushing for a more robust response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, such as tougher sanctions and more military aid. But countries in the west and south of the bloc will want to ensure any new measures don’t impact their interests too strongly. Given that decisions on measures such as sanctions and financial assistance need unanimity, Sweden faces a tough task in securing agreement — particularly if Hungary continues to play a blocking role. Also one to watch will be the second meeting of the European Political Community, scheduled to take place in Moldova in April, where the issue of enlargement, and Ukraine’s accession ambitions, will return to the fore. 

Chances of success:

Given what is at stake, there will be strong impetus to show unity. However, the devil will be in the detail, and the key question is how far any new measures, including sanctions, will be watered down to find consensus. 

 — Suzanne Lynch

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Progress on asylum reform, finally

Name of key legislation: New Pact on Migration and Asylum

Why it matters: An electric political issue in many EU countries. The bloc has struggled with how to reform asylum rules since the migration crisis of 2015-2016, with little or no progress. This inability to find a consensus has turned migration into the EU’s Achilles’ heel, exposing the bloc to blackmail from autocrats like Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. 

State of play: In September 2020, the Commission presented a new proposal to reform asylum in the EU, called the Migration Pact. Despite the lack of significant progress so far, there had been hopes that the Swedish presidency could make strides toward closing the file by the end of this legislative term in 2024. The commissioner responsible for migration is Ylva Johansson, a Swedish social democrat. On top of that, Sweden has one of the highest ratios in Europe of asylum seekers per capita — so it can credibly say to others it is walking the walk. Those hopes have dimmed with the new center-right government that depends on support from the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats party. But Swedish officials remain confident that Stockholm can deliver. 

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

EU fault lines: Positions on migration have remained more or less fossilized since the start of the discussions seven years ago. Countries in the south, where most migrants first arrive, would like to see mandatory relocations to other EU countries. Those in the north want arrival states to stop so-called “secondary movements” of migrants to other states. Countries in the east, like Poland and Hungary, are implacably opposed to any mandatory redistribution system. There is also skepticism among some countries about extending the Schengen zone because of doubts that Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania are equipped to police the EU’s border.

Chances of success:

— Jacopo Barigazzi 

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Connecting EU countries — and Ukraine

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

Name of key legislation: Revision of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T)

Why it matters: Major gaps and bottlenecks prevent smooth transport across the EU — and, in some cases, impede a shift from road to rail. The TEN-T plan — a network of major roads, rail tracks, waterways and ports built to common standards — is a bloc-wide plan to fix that. 

As a framework for connecting all of the EU, it is charged with symbolism. And the reform has become even more important following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A revision to the plans published by the Commission in July aimed to strengthen links to Ukraine and Moldova while removing connections with Russia and Belarus from the network. The war has also made Europe painfully aware of the need to move troops and military equipment quickly to deter potential threats to EU borders.

State of play: The Czech presidency managed to cement a Council position in early December. Parliament’s transport committee is aiming for a vote in January and a plenary vote in February so it will fall to the Swedes to negotiate a deal.

EU fault lines: EU ministers are worried that meeting the Commission’s plans will come with a steep price tag, so they’ll likely push to go soft on some standards. Meanwhile, the Parliament will want to make sure that the new text has more teeth than the current regulation.

Chances of success:

The Swedes hope to reach a deal by the end of the presidency. But the Parliament and Council positions are likely to be far apart. 

Hanne Cokelaere

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Mission impossible on transport

Name of key legislation: New truck CO2 standards and a “greening freight” package, which will include plans to increase the capacity on the EU’s rail tracks; a revision of the Combined Transport Directive; a revision of the rules on vehicle weights and dimensions; and an initiative on greening corporate fleets are just a few of the files the Commission still plans to propose. That comes on top of the planned Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation, ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime, which are still under negotiation. 

Why it matters: A transport-stopping pandemic and the war in Ukraine that made better links to the country a high priority have taken up much of the Commission’s mobility-related bandwidth.

But with the end of the Commission’s term looming large, there is still an avalanche of transport proposals underway — with some chunky legislation yet to land. If the Swedish presidency fails to make significant progress with these, they may end up stranded.

State of play: The EU’s Green Deal Chief Frans Timmermans wants the truck CO2 standards proposal to be ready around “the turn of the year.” Other plans are expected to land in the spring.

EU fault lines: Hard to say until the draft laws are published, but the combined transport proposal is likely to stir up controversy. The Commission withdrew previous plans, arguing Council and Parliament had distorted the proposal. 

Chances of success:

With so many transport balls to juggle, along with last year’s climate proposals already in motion, Sweden could be handing most of these files on at the end of their six-month term. That leaves precious little time for the measures to be agreed before the EU election.

Hanne Cokelaere

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Cleaning up cars

Name of key legislation: Euro 7 vehicle pollutant standards

Why it matters: The regulation aims to reduce levels of toxic fumes that clog up city air by forcing automakers to abide by detailed pollutant emission limits, new testing requirements and durability rules. It applies to all vehicles from new passenger cars to heavy trucks. Separate legislation mandating that all new cars and vans must have zero CO2 emissions by 2035 is already agreed.

That’s a seismic shift for an industry struggling to pay the costs of a massive electrification drive, and which is also under fire for causing endemic and often illegal levels of air pollution in urban areas. The rules address dangerous nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide, for example, plus particulate matter. They also include the EU’s first durability rules for electric vehicle batteries among many other things.

State of play: The rules were proposed in early November, after a series of delays through 2022. Talks will soon start over the details in both the European Parliament and Council.

EU fault lines: Expect significant wrangling. Industry captains already complain they are too onerous for trucks, for example. Big carmaking countries are likely to push for the introduction date for cars (2025) and trucks (2027) to be pushed back, as the industry typically works to seven-year product cycles, which makes the introduction of new technology in just a few years problematic.

Chances of success:

The Swedes are aiming to have a position agreed among member countries in the Council by the end of their presidency. That will mean a lot of technical talks in the early weeks of their agenda.

Joshua Posaner

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Putting health data to good use

Name of key legislation: European Health Data Space 

Why it matters: The European Health Data Space (EHDS) has the potential to reshape how patients, health care workers, researchers, industry and policymakers access and use the bloc’s most precious and closely guarded data. But the Swedes will have to ensure the legislation includes sufficient safeguards around privacy and data protection, while not adding extra bureaucratic hurdles for already strained health systems. 

State of play: The Commission presented its proposal in May and the Czech presidency has worked hard to get the file off the ground. While the Czechs focused on nailing down wording around the primary use of health data, the Swedes will have a more controversial task: deciding how this data can be used for research and policymaking. Over in the European Parliament, discussions have only just kicked off, with two rapporteurs appointed (one from each committee handling the file).

EU fault lines: During the Czech presidency, the Council controversially proposed scrapping a key mention of telemedicine from the regulation. The governance of the EHDS is another concern, with industry vying for a seat at the table, alongside health care professionals and patients. Privacy concerns will also be a major obstacle, following a harsh critique from the bloc’s privacy regulators. 

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

Chances of success:

This is the big moment for the EHDS as countries decide where to pick their fights. While the Swedes likely won’t get the file over the line, their presidency will determine the direction of travel for the legislation. 

— Ashleigh Furlong

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Medicines industry shake-up

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

Name of key legislation: Revision of the general pharmaceutical legislation 

Why it matters: It’s the first time in 20 years that the EU has updated its basic pharmaceutical rules. It could be a major shake-up of an industry that, according to the Commission, employs around 800,000 people, and adds €110 billion to the EU’s trade surplus. Expect hard-fought battles over attempts to change the current incentives system, such as the hot-button proposal of transferable vouchers for developing new antibiotics to fight antimicrobial resistance.

At the heart of the proposal is the Commission’s ambition to reduce the yawning gap between the bloc’s east and west on access to medicines. Currently, Germans get medicines earlier, sometimes by years, than patients in Romania or Bulgaria. Leaked documents show that the EU wants to rely more on sticks than carrots to get the industry to launch cutting-edge drugs in all of the EU’s markets — not just the best-paying ones. 

State of play: Originally the Commission’s legislative proposal was meant to land sometime in 2022. That then became December of 2022. A negative opinion from the Commission’s quality control board delayed things further: Now the official line is the first quarter of 2023. 

EU fault lines: Big Pharma is big business, so expect stiff resistance from Paris and Berlin to any attempts to cut into the bottom line of their prized pharmaceutical champions.  

Chances of success:

Expect the file to land in March, or even April. Given its size and political sensitivity, there’s basically no chance the Council will arrive at a position before Spain takes over the presidency. 

— Carlo Martuscelli 

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Liberalizing Europe’s trade

Name of key legislation: The EU’s free-trade agreements and the generalized system of preferences

Why it matters: Sweden — and the EU as a whole — are pushing to diversify supply chains and bolster the bloc’s economic ties around the world. Fostering new trade flows is crucial to keep companies and consumers afloat, as Europe faces a painful economic downturn and the prospect of a transatlantic trade war.

State of play: Sweden will push to keep unfettered trade flowing from Ukraine to the EU. But Stockholm is also keen to wrap up the backlog of EU trade deals that are still waiting for sign-off from the European Parliament and EU countries to enter into force, including pacts with New Zealand, Chile and Mexico. It will also want to nudge along trade talks with Australia, Indonesia and India.

Sweden hopes to make headway on signing the bloc’s agreement with the Mercosur countries of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay as well. The prospects of success have improved with Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s return in power in Brazil.

They may also try to finally update the EU’s low-tariff access program for developing countries to the EU market, dubbed the generalized system of preferences.

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

EU fault lines: The Swedes’ liberal agenda faces strong headwinds as the U.S. embarks on a massive program of state subsidies next year worth hundreds of billions. Europe’s protectionists will want to shield EU industries with the bloc’s own defense measures. 

Agriculture-heavy countries could try to spoil the Nordic impulse for more liberal trade. For instance, France, Ireland and Austria have reservations about the Mercosur deal. Spain, Italy and Portugal want to shield their farmers from cheap rice imports via the developing countries’ market access program. And some EU countries are even antsy about extending Ukraine’s tariff-free access to the bloc.

Chances of success:

Sweden will surely land a few trade wins, but protectionism — and a potentially almighty trade fight with Washington — could hurt Stockholm’s plan to facilitate international flows.

— Sarah Anne Aarup

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Combating child sex abuse online

Name of key legislation: Regulation to combat child sexual abuse online 

Why it matters: With millions of videos and images of child sexual abuse spreading online, a proposed EU regulation to combat it could force tech companies like WhatsApp, Instagram and Google to detect, remove and report such illegal content — something they are not currently required to do. They would also have to scan people’s messages to find conversations between potential offenders and minors. Failure to comply could result in hefty fines of up to 6 percent of companies’ global revenues. 

The landmark EU plan has, however, sparked serious concerns for fundamental rights among activists, tech companies and European data protection watchdogs. They have warned that the law could undermine encryption and lead to mass surveillance. 

State of play: After the Commission introduced its plan in May, EU countries have been poring over the text to grasp how it would apply in practice. Over in the European Parliament, discussions are slowly starting. Lawmakers have requested more analysis of the Commission’s controversial draft law, which could further delay negotiations. 

EU fault lines: Brace yourself for tense debates over this sensitive issue. Swedish European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson has been ramping up the pressure on lawmakers and EU capitals to green-light the law before the end of the current Parliament. EU capitals have been divided, with Germany and Austria sounding the alarm about the risks for fundamental rights, but others like France largely welcoming the law. 

Chances of success:

Sweden will have a tough time trying to assuage privacy concerns while ensuring the proposed law is effective.

Clothilde Goujard

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Strengthening media freedom

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

Name of key legislation: European Media Freedom Act

Why it matters: Press freedom has been under threat in several EU countries in Europe including Hungary, Poland, Greece and Slovenia. With the European Media Freedom Act, the Commission proposed an unprecedented plan to protect newsrooms’ editorial independence from political and economic interference. 

New rules aim to limit the buildup of massive media conglomerates; political nominations on oversight boards of public media; and covert funding through advertisements. It would also ban the use of surveillance spyware against journalists and their families. In addition, the Commission’s draft law wants to empower news organizations on social media when their content has been removed.

State of play: Negotiations on the law in the Council and the European Parliament are still at early stages because the EU executive pitched its plan in September. 

EU fault lines: Sweden has ambitious plans for its six-month stint. One of the Nordic country’s main priorities is to safeguard the EU’s fundamental values. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said in November the bloc “cannot tolerate states restricting media freedom,” in a thinly veiled jab at Poland and Hungary. Beyond Warsaw and Budapest’s opposition to the law, other countries like Germany and Austria have also challenged Brussels’ legitimacy to set European rules to protect independent journalism.

Chances of success:

Stockholm will likely push as much as it can, but forging an agreement across EU capitals on a sensitive issue will be tricky. 

— Clothilde Goujard

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Protecting forest(ers)

Name of key legislation: Nature Restoration Regulation, Carbon Removals Certification Mechanism and EU Framework for Forest Monitoring and Strategic Plans

Why it matters: A proposal to boost nature restoration in the EU, another explaining how to certify carbon removals and a third on improving forest monitoring and their management will keep Sweden busy during its Council presidency. All will make significant contributions to the bloc’s climate goals, but it will be tough for the Swedes to stay neutral. Forests are not only central to Swedish culture, their exploitation is also a key component of the country’s economy. 

Last year Sweden strongly criticized the 2030 Forest Strategy, arguing it gives precedent to environmental protection over the economic development of the forestry sector. The Swedish parliament also criticized the Nature Restoration Regulation presented this summer as Brussels overreach.

State of play: Sweden may be required to finalize the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive if the Czech presidency doesn’t manage to conclude it — a big tension point with the Parliament being whether burning certain trees for energy should be considered renewable. Negotiations on agreeing a common Council position on the Nature Restoration Regulation are ongoing and expected to be finalized by the Swedes, who could start interinstitutional talks with the Parliament toward the end of their presidency. Stockholm is expected to only start initial talks within the Council on the Carbon Removals Certification Mechanism, which was presented by the Commission at the end of November. The regulation on forest monitoring is expected to land in the second quarter of 2023 and Sweden has already said it will organize a workshop with EU27 ministers on the topic during their term.

EU fault lines: Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said last month that his government will only push high climate targets if they don’t “stifle innovation.” He added that he will also call during the Council presidency “for the EU to take full account of the role that forests play [in fighting climate change] as a source of energy, as a base for sustainable products and as an economic engine,” on top of their contribution to biodiversity conservation and as CO2 storage. He will find allies in heavily forested countries like Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and the Baltic states.

Chances of success:

Sweden will be busy finalizing the Council’s position on the Nature Restoration Regulation as it’s unlikely the Czechs will be able to adopt a general approach by the end of their term. 

Louise Guillot

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Greening Europe’s economy

Name of key legislation: Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation, Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation, Waste Shipments Regulation and the Critical Raw Materials Act

Why it matters: The Commission’s revamped packaging rules are meant to “green” the way businesses package everything, from takeaway food and drink to perfume bottles, meaning both industry groups and NGOs will be watching closely. The Waste Shipments Regulation revision would lay down tighter rules on the EU’s waste exports, while the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation is meant to compel manufacturers to ensure products last longer and are easier to reuse, repair and recycle.

Meanwhile, the Critical Raw Materials Act, which the EU executive is expected to present in March, is meant to help the bloc secure its supply of materials needed for green-transition technologies like electric vehicle batteries and wind turbines. The act is expected to boost the materials’ recycling and reuse, diversify those supply chains and incentivize new domestic mining projects.

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

State of play: The Commission’s revamped Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive was published at the end of November, meaning negotiations on the file will begin in earnest next year. EU countries are unlikely to reach common ground on the new waste export rules before the end of the year leaving that, too, up to the Swedes. Talks on the new raw materials legislation are also likely to kick off under Stockholm’s watch. Sweden produces over 90 percent of all iron ore within the bloc, so it has an interest in ensuring the new legislation speeds up permitting and secures investment in new mining projects. As for the new ecodesign rules, the Czech presidency will only come up with a progress report at the end of its term, leaving it to Sweden to agree a common Council position on the file.

EU fault lines: The proposed new packaging rules sparked fierce debate within the Commission, among industry lobbies and between EU countries before they were even published. Following one leaked draft, Italy flat out said it won’t accept the new rules as they don’t leave enough “flexibility” for countries. Meanwhile Austria, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands want to see “ambitious” rules with a particular focus on waste prevention, reusable packaging, high-quality recycling and recycled content, according to a letter seen by POLITICO. 

Chances of success:

Under pressure from the (speedier) Parliament, the Swedes are expected to finalize the Council’s position on waste exports — but expect a lengthy battle over the hotly contested packaging rules.

Leonie Cater and Antonia Zimmermann

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Making farming less toxic

Name of key legislation: Sustainable Use of Pesticides Regulation

Why it matters: Synthetic pesticides, while useful for protecting crops from diseases and weeds, can have a detrimental impact on the environment and human health. A proposed EU regulation aims to halve their use by 2030 and convince farmers to use these pesky chemicals only as an absolute last resort.

State of play: Negotiations on the law in the Council and the European Parliament have not moved far since the EU executive came up with the proposal in June. National capitals have slammed the bill for being “too ambitious,” while the Parliament’s environment and agriculture committees spent the last months wrangling about how much say each of them should have on the file.

EU fault lines: A majority of EU diplomats have asked the Commission to go back to the drawing board and provide additional data on the bill’s impact on food security, arguing that with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now is not the time to put food production in jeopardy. The demand for additional data will likely set the legislative proposal back by months, or could even force the Commission to withdraw it altogether.

Among the most contentious issues are the individual targets for each of the 27 countries, which add up to an overall 50 percent reduction at the EU level. Eastern European capitals, in particular, feel they are being forced to implement the cut to the same — or even greater — extent as richer EU states, including Spain, France and the Netherlands, which have been spraying exuberant amounts of pesticides for decades.

Chances of success:

Like the Czechs, the Swedes are expected to play hot potato with the file and leave it to the Spanish presidency to craft a Council position ahead of the trilogue negotiations with the Parliament — if it ever comes to that.

— Bartosz Brzeziński

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Securing supply chains

Name of key legislation: Single Market Emergency Instrument

Why it matters: With the EU facing one crisis after another, the European Commission wants to make sure that the single market keeps working smoothly in times of crisis. Its solution is this new emergency instrument, which is meant to protect supply chains and avoid a repeat of the border closures and internal export restrictions seen when the coronavirus pandemic hit the region.

The tool would give the Commission significant new powers. It would be able to prevent export bans within the bloc and require countries to stockpile key goods. Other provisions would require companies to prioritize specific orders and provide information on production capacities and stocks of essential goods.

State of play: The proposal was originally expected to land in the spring, but the Commission eventually presented it in mid-September. EU industry ministers first discussed it shortly afterward, while the text landed in the Parliament in October.

EU fault lines: Expect intense negotiations. Some European capitals see the legislation as a Commission power grab. A key sticking point is who will pull the new instrument’s trigger. The proposal gives EU countries a key role in activating the emergency phase, when the most interventionist measures can be deployed. But they want a say in every step of potential emergency measures. Lawmakers also want the Parliament to have a bigger role. Business groups pitched in too, warning that some measures may be too onerous for companies and give regulators significant powers to intervene in business decisions. 

Chances of success:

The Swedes will try to make progress, but several EU diplomats said they were not optimistic about progress in the coming months. “The Swedes will inherit a working document from the Czech [presidency] and a lot of disappointment from EU countries,” said one EU diplomat. “The Commission hasn’t listened to member states. If it wants this file to move fast, this will have to change.”

— Pietro Lombardi

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Getting Brexit done

Name of key legislation: The Northern Ireland protocol

Why it matters: Northern Ireland was always the hardest Brexit square to circle and the problems have continued even after the U.K.’s departure from the EU. London argues the protocol — which mandates some checks on trade between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland to protect the EU single market — is too bureaucratic. It points to deep opposition to the setup among Northern Ireland’s unionist politicians. But the British government’s legislative threat (currently in the House of Lords) to disapply parts of the deal it signed less than two years ago has provoked fury in Brussels. The combative approach is hampering progress in other areas of the cross-Channel relationship. To add to the pressure, Northern Ireland’s government is currently paused and there are fears of an upsurge in sectarian violence if a solution isn’t found.

State of play: New British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that he wants the fight over the deal to be resolved by April but EU diplomats are skeptical that this will happen. “You never know how these things go,” one diplomat said, “but at this point, a deal is really far off.” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, meanwhile, is more optimistic, saying in early November that it would be possible to resolve the spat by the end of the year.

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström told the Financial Times that he would like to see improvement in the EU-U.K. relationship during the Swedish presidency and “move the dossier” on the protocol. Sweden’s formal powers are limited though, as the talks are handled by the Commission.

EU fault lines: This is one area where there is solid agreement among the 27 EU members.

Chances of success:

— Leonie Kijewski

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The world’s AI police

Name of key legislation: Artificial Intelligence Act

Why it matters: Regulating artificial intelligence was near the top of the von der Leyen Commission’s list of priorities. That’s not only because big chunks of EU citizens’ lives — from online ad targeting to credit checks — are impacted by AI systems with little transparency and without clear rules. It is also a chance for Europe to become the world’s AI rulemaker.

Designed to regulate AI technology across sectors, the AI Act would outlaw certain uses of the technology (manipulation and exploitation, social scoring and police use of facial recognition in public places, with exceptions) and establish strict rules for AI applications considered “high-risk.” 

State of play: The Czechs brokered a compromise position among EU ambassadors in November. Adoption by EU ministers is expected for December 6. All the Swedes have to do is wait for MEPs to adopt a position and then navigate the trilogues. Good luck with that. 

In Parliament, the file is moving at a more sedate pace, with MEPs split on key subjects including the very definition of AI. Most MEPs think a position will be adopted by February or March, with trilogues punted to April. That would give the Swedes two months to thrash out a final text with the Parliament and Commission.

On top of that, the things on which MEPs appear to agree — fewer exemptions for national security and policing purposes, a possible blanket ban on facial recognition — put the Parliament at loggerheads with the Council. 

EU fault lines: The list of prohibited and high-risk AI uses, which MEPs want to expand and the Council has limited, will be a point of contention in trilogues. The definition of AI — which the Council has narrowed to encompass systems using certain techniques — is another likely headache.

Chances of success:

The Swedes know the ball is currently in the Parliament’s court and that trilogues will be too complex to be wrapped up during their presidency. Barring miracles, this is one for the Spanish presidency to clinch. 

— Gian Volpicelli

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Save energy — and fast

Name of key legislation: Electricity market reform, the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD)

Why it matters: With gas storage levels still high, officials are cautiously optimistic that the EU will scrape through the winter without a major supply crisis involving rolling blackouts. But the race is now on to shield the bloc from another energy crisis next winter. It’s this context that has given renewed urgency to deal with several energy files core to protecting the EU in 2023, including a potentially radical redesign of the EU’s power market. Another big prize is a significant boost to energy efficiency, which could make the difference next year if Russian gas flows drop even further.

State of play: The EED and RED, which aim to increase ambitions around renewables and lower energy consumption, have already cleared multiple rounds of interinstitutional negotiations. It’s possible the Czechs will finish both off, but more likely the final stretch will be left to the Swedes.

The EPBD is still in its early stages, with MEPs only expected to vote on the Parliament’s position in early 2023, while EU countries have already settled on a common position. Sweden will pick up the initial interinstitutional negotiations. The Commission’s proposals for electricity market reform are set to drop by March.

EU fault lines: On the EPBD, negotiations are set to be spicy, with tensions among countries still running high over the final “fragile” compromise. Six countries even issued a declaration slamming its lack of ambition, which will embolden MEPs, who are seeking dramatically higher targets. 

The power market reforms are yet to materialize, but it is already clear that countries are strongly divided. Spain and France have long called for significant changes, while others are more skeptical about comprehensive reform.

Chances of success:

While an agreement on the RED and EED is pretty much guaranteed, the divided position on the EPBD will make for difficult negotiations with the Commission and Parliament. The same can be said of the highly political power market reform, but the need to protect consumers from high prices next winter should concentrate minds.

— Victor Jack

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Extra portions of chips

Name of key legislation: The European Chips Act 

Why it matters: The semiconductor shortage that emerged during the pandemic was a reminder for Europe that it is too dependent on others for the building blocks of the digital transition: chips. Tensions around Taiwan, a major hub for semiconductor manufacturing, has given even more urgency to reshoring production. But is Europe serious about its semiconductor ambitions (getting to 20 percent of the global value chain by 2030)? One way to prove it will put its money where its mouth is. But that element — the EU budget, especially for commercializing chips research — is on shaky ground. 

State of play: EU member countries already agreed a collective position, but with a budget shortfall of about €400 million, which they are urging the Commission to fill with alternative funding. Parliament is progressing more slowly, with a vote in the lead committee expected at the end of January and a vote in the plenary in February. Lawmakers have been crying foul over the budget as well, with one of the lead MEPs, Bulgarian Eva Maydell, asking the Commission to give a “detailed” funding projection. 

EU fault lines: The budget debate is not settled and the Swedes will see it popping up again during negotiations with Parliament. The fight over money reflects a more fundamental fault line: the group of countries that have a chip industry and might benefit from new funds versus countries that don’t have a stake. 

The file also has a geopolitical edge, as the U.S. has been pushing its European allies — and especially the Netherlands, home of chips equipment supplier ASML — to cut back on exports of advanced chips technology to China. Funding advanced semiconductor research doesn’t just potentially help industry, it also gives you a geopolitical bargaining chip. 

Chances of success:

While the budgetary aspect is contentious and the Commission can’t just draw up alternative funding overnight, propping up Europe’s chips industry is too important to fail. 

— Pieter Haeck

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Protecting gig workers

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

Name of key legislation: Platform Work Directive

Why it matters: All Council presidencies promise to act as an honest broker. Stockholm has the chance to really prove it by bringing over the line a file that the country truly hates. Sweden was the only country to object to the Commission’s proposal to reclassify up to 4.1 million gig workers, like Uber drivers and Deliveroo couriers, as employees. That would give them extra worker protections compared with their current status as independent contractors. Sweden thinks it should be up to the member countries to solve this riddle, not the EU. 

State of play: This file is a nail-biter, both in Parliament and the Council. In both institutions, different camps have been blocking one another for weeks on a key provision: the list of criteria to determine whether gig workers are controlled by the platform that they work for — and hence should be employees instead of independent contractors. EU delegates are expected to get to a deal this week, lawmakers a few days later. However, delays can’t be ruled out. 

EU fault lines: The Swedes will have their full term for trilogue negotiations between the three institutions and they may well need all that time. Even if Stockholm overcomes its half-heartedness, it will be confronted with a social democrat-lead lawmaker (Italian MEP Elisabetta Gualmini) who has shown she is prepared to stick to her guns. Add to this mix Commission negotiators who are afraid that the final text might in fact add to the uncertainty for both workers and platforms and you know negotiations will be extremely difficult. 

Chances of success:

Time to swallow hard and prove if you are really an honest broker.

— Pieter Haeck

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Promoting healthier food choices

Name of key legislation: Harmonized Mandatory Front-of-Pack Nutrition Labeling

Why it matters: Europeans are getting fatter and less healthy. More than half of the EU’s adult population is overweight according to figures from 2019, and rates of obesity and being overweight are rapidly increasing in most member countries. Even Europeans with body mass indexes within the healthy range suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. 

With the barrage of health problems this spectrum of malnutrition entails, Brussels wants to make it easier for people to make healthy food choices, or at least to make informed decisions. Since 2016 nearly all food products in the bloc have had to display their nutritional breakdown. The proposed front-of-pack labeling system now takes this a step further. 

State of play: Who would have thought conversations about nutritional labels could get so political? Ever since 2020, when Brussels announced its intentions to establish an EU-wide label, the French-made, traffic light-style Nutri-Score has been seen as the favorite. But Italy soon launched a counteroffensive, arguing the label unfairly discriminates against traditional foods with high fat, sugar and salt content. Rome pitched its homebrewed alternative — the NutrInform Battery — and even found support from Prague. But the fight, which at times has turned toxic, is far from over, not least since the Swedes, who already have their own front-of-pack label, have so far refused to be drawn in on the issue. 

Illustration by Dato Parulava for POLITICO

The Commission’s proposal, initially expected in 2022, was delayed in November without a new publication date, but it could still arrive during the Swedish presidency.

EU fault lines: For now, Brussels has ruled out adopting Nutri-Score for the whole EU. In an effort to appease the warring camps, the EU executive might instead propose several options for countries to pick and choose from. 

Chances of success:

Seeing how the discussions are going even before the Commission has unveiled its proposal, don’t expect the Swedes to get far with crafting a Council position before the end of their mandate. 

— Bartosz Brzeziński and Susannah Savage

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Reforming fiscal rules

Name of key legislation: Reforming the Stability and Growth Pact

Why it matters: The European Commission is making a push to overhaul the rules underpinning the bloc’s economic governance, and keep public debts and deficits at manageable levels. 

State of play: The so-called Stability and Growth Pact is something of a sacred cow in the EU, and any attempts to reform it will be met with significant resistance. The Commission has presented its ideas for change and will hope for consensus among EU leaders by year’s end — which is unlikely to happen — or early next year. If it gets the green light, it will present legislative changes in the first few months of 2023. The proposed reform is both more flexible and more strict: It seeks to give countries with high and risky debt more time to bring it down at an agreed pace over a number of years, while at the same time ensuring that they don’t stray off path, or risk facing sanctions. So far, the rules on debt reduction have been stricter, demanding annual reductions of 5 percent of excess debt and threatening fines of up to 2 percent of GDP (though seldom enforced).

EU fault lines: The big question is Berlin. Germany doesn’t want to give too much leeway to the Commission to decide bilaterally with EU countries the correct pace of debt reduction and argues against this model. However, Berlin is isolated. Even hawk-in-chief, the Netherlands, is more amenable to changes than previously expected. 

Still, without Germany on board, there is no chance of reform. 

Chances of success:

Don’t expect the Swedes to be too bothered about slow progress on this one: While the rules are applicable throughout the EU, they’re particularly stringent for eurozone countries, which Sweden is not a part of.

— Paola Tamma

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Reopening the EU budget

Name of key legislation: Multiannual Financial Framework review

Why it matters: The bloc has run out of money. The Commission has been scraping the bottom of the barrel to ensure it can disburse financing to Ukraine, but there’s not much left. And with an energy crisis, war on Europe’s border and other unpredictable sources of EU expenses, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen committed to a review of the bloc’s seven-year budget by the second quarter of 2023.

State of play: A review was always in the works, but it has been accelerated. The Commission had previously said it would do a review by January 1, 2024. Keep in mind though that a review is not necessarily a revision, so it doesn’t definitely mean an increase — though it is fair to assume that is what the Commission will recommend.

EU fault lines: Remember those budget “tribes” made up of member countries in the Council from the long years of talks that preceded the current budget? Well they could soon be on the war path again. It is early days, but appetite from EU countries to increase their contributions at a time of high national expenditure, record inflation and rising borrowing costs is close to nil. 

Chances of success:

Appetite for changes to the budget is low.

Paola Tamma

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