BRUSSELS — Belgian voters were expected to bring out the wrecking ball on Sunday. But instead of total demolition, they ordered a grand remodeling of the state and its finances.
The Flemish right-wing New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) and Francophone liberal Reformist Movement (MR) were the two victors of Sunday’s triple election, in which voters elected new national, regional and European members of parliament.
The results had pollsters scratching their heads. For months, the far-right, separatist Vlaams Belang was expected to win a landslide in the northern region of Flanders, which could have put it in control of forming a government. But the party underperformed, finishing behind N-VA.
In the southern region of Wallonia, as well as in Brussels, the liberal MR beat the odds and came out on top, dealing a massive blow to the Socialists (PS), which had kept a firm grip on power for decades.
“These are election results that show a willingness for change and reform,” MR’s party President Georges-Louis Bouchez told party militants Sunday evening.
Both N-VA and MR campaigned on platforms advocating a center-right economic reform to cut back the country’s spiraling government deficit.
For N-VA, though, there’s another demand: to bring the bulk of the federal state’s competencies to the regions of Flanders and Wallonia. If executed, this would leave the country with a minimal federal government for policies like defense and foreign policy.
“Flanders has more than ever chosen for more autonomy,” N-VA chair Bart De Wever said during his victory speech on Sunday evening.
He had dismissed the far right’s plan to unilaterally force a split of Belgium earlier in the campaign, pitching a less radical way of reforming the state structures instead.
Looking for a leader
For outgoing Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, the election was a disaster.
His Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open VLD) scored 8.7 percent of Flemish votes in the federal election, a 4.8 percentage point drop compared to 2019.
“We lost,” he told supporters in an emotional speech Sunday evening. The party announced on Monday it would seek a new president.
De Croo handed over his resignation as prime minister to the country’s King Philippe, a procedural step after which the king meets with leaders of Belgium’s biggest parties: N-VA’s De Wever first, Vlaams Belang’s Tom Van Grieken second and MR’s Bouchez third. The king will then appoint negotiators to start talks on a coalition government.
FLANDERS: NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLLS
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WALLONIA: NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLLS
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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
Forming a Belgian federal government is notoriously difficult. The country holds the world record for the longest period without a government from when, in 2010-2011, it needed 541 days to get it done.
Parties will have to form regional ruling coalitions as well as a federal coalition. Negotiations happen in parallel and risk disrupting one another if parties clash in the process.
But to everyone’s surprise, talks could turn out much smoother than expected this time around.
In the days leading up to the elections, MR leader Bouchez already said that he could see himself teaming up with De Wever’s N-VA. On Sunday evening, Bouchez said his party would turn to the Francophone centrists of Les Engagés as a “privileged partner” — a party that, in another surprise, doubled its 2019 election result to win more than 20 percent of Walloon votes.
For De Wever, a center-to-right coalition could mean breaking the grip of the Francophone PS over the country. In the last stretch of the campaign, he angled to become the next prime minister to lead a government focused on fixing Belgium’s finances first. Belgium’s budget deficit is projected to rise to 4.7 percent of GDP next year — way over the European Union-wide limit of 3 percent.
“We’re in incredibly bad shape and we’re going to have to implement a remediation policy,” De Wever said in a TV debate the night before the election. He added: “You cannot get this country structurally in order if you don’t also look at the institutional.”
Far right, far left fell short
Vlaams Belang had hoped to come in first, which would have given them control over government negotiations on the Flemish side.
Coming in second felt like a defeat — even if the party gained seats at the federal and regional level and even won most votes in the European Parliament vote.
The party had planned for a party in Londerzeel, north of Brussels. Tractors with signs saying “save our farmers” were parked at the entrance. Inside, staff opened Champagne bottles for when early results would come in.
The crowd fell silent when first official results showed the party failed to meet the sky-high expectations raised by polls.
“We had the ambition to become the biggest party in the whole of Flanders. We didn’t succeed in that,” Vlaams Belang chair Tom Van Grieken said at the venue Sunday shortly before 9 p.m.
BRUSSELS: NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLLS
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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
Shortly after Van Grieken’s speech, militants headed out and the crew packed up the stage.
Green parties in Flanders and Wallonia also suffered major defeats, going down to 7.5 percent of Flemish votes and 7 percent of Walloon votes.
But the biggest shift took place in Wallonia, where MR’s victory means a major setback for the PS and its leader Paul Magnette — who, ahead of Sunday’s vote, still served as top candidate to become the next prime minister.
PS has held power in the French-speaking part of the country for decades and is deeply embedded in governments at all levels.
Earlier in the campaign it feared its main challenge would come from the left-wing Workers’ Party (PTB-PVDA). But it was MR and its unabashed right-leaning liberal constituents that knocked the Socialists off the throne.
At the MR headquarters, supporters were bursting with glee. Party member Gjergj Dodaj told POLITICO: “The big difference between the PS and the MR, is that MR preaches work whereas PS preaches laziness.”
BELGIUM NATIONAL PARLIAMENT SEATS
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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.